Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

YGR/PNE

[kavern23]

Rex..you say I misunderstand PNE...but what?
PNE has a 360m market cap plus 70 million debt and YGR has a market cap of 112m and like 119m debt.

If you are in the camp of waiting a NG stock...why would you choose PNE over YGR as one sentance in PNE latest presentation that should have you abit concerned....no...slide 4 says PNE need 1.85 /mcf to cover divy, capex and debt repayments.  
And that is with a measly 17.5m capex.
This 1.85/mcf number is from their march presentation so it would take into account what PNE has hedged higher.

So for seeing how AECO wasnt 1.85 for march, PNE could be increasing their working capital def for the month.

PNE looks to be draining the CF from the flush production from wells Certus drilled without reinvesting much for 2025 year.

If NG prices every got better in 2025 or 2026...how exactly is PNE going to pivot and have money to have any kind of drill program.

PNE is worst energy stock to be in hands down.

They should be trading at 30-40 cents. That 6 cent divy isnt sustainable at under 1.85 mcf and they dont have debt room to run neg and wait for a recovery like Birchliff hopes too do.

The market is so distorted when compre PNE to YGR right now and things will balance out by June.

[TheRexmember]

Haven't looked at your other posts yet Kavern, but this one jumped out, lol.  Again it is clear you don't understand the model or the plan over at PNE. You just follow the drilling companies. It's not that I think PNE is an "Amazing " company, I just think they are unique in Canada. And I respect their leadership because they are shrewd managers.  PNE has very

[kavern23]

Rex...read PNE financial statements...they "kaboomed" their balancesheet from Dec 31 2022 to Dec 2023.  PNE has a negative working capital of 33m dude. You think PNE has shrewd management ...to pay 46m divys in 2023 and borrow 56m in fall of 2023 at over 12% interest rates?  in the face of 1.58 spot aeco right now? Are you serious or trolling? You are forgetting one thing

[TheRexmember]

Very, very bad math. You are reading things into the balance sheet thst you don't understand because you refer to the wrong things.  They are cash flow positive going forward right NOW. The term debt is SCHEDULED to be paid down by  1.5 million per month. Or roughly the amount YGR is forecasting - although their forecast depends on commodity prices.  thats the difference

[kavern23]

Rex...I don't think you understand Yangarra or pne. Do you get their company was basically started from scratch with just bare land, almost all organic growth 2017 is kinda when this company really formed and started spending capital. it was always realistically going to take 6-10 years worth of drilling before have enough wells for production to stabilize. I have posted before, years

[TheRexmember]

Certus produced about 6000 boed - 50% liquids. which is why they sold for 100 million plus another 8 million in adjustments. Or roughly the market cap of ygr. ygr is still below previous peak production with liquid cuts dominated by low priced ngl's. Oil production has been a disappointment for years. It might be turning a corner, sure appreciate company updates... They need a couple of

[kavern23]

Rex...that is not accurate on certus. Spend some time and look at the wells Whitecap and Tourmaline (former Bonavista) are driling in Glauconite zone in Caroline. The Glauconite zone is gassy with lots of NGL's in west of caroline and going east it gets oily. What does it logically tell you if Whitecap and Tourmaline are drilling near this certus land over spring break? IT MEANS IT IS

[kavern23]

If prime cardium sections in ferrier that are hotspots for oil are worth 3m a section so are prime oily side glaucinite in caroline. Yes it varies a ton section to section. In a hotspot for oil...who wouldnt pay 6m for 2 sections....that allow for 4 2mile wells that will produce 150k oil each within 2 years. The problem is after using 109m to buy certus and taking on debt...PNE can spend 50m too

[TheRexmember]

Yeah, you are right. PNE bought some great acreage in the Certus deal. They paid peanuts for it and now they will suckmout a lot of cash. The 3000 barrels of liquids they just bought are going to spin some nice cash flow at these prices. 

[kavern23]

Rex the half a billion in drilling spent is killing it if they have another 10-20 years of steady production. If ygr can get a well to last 15 years  it is doing well. But for example, cardium Bne has some wells that have produced for decades and some of them will get shut in and capped each year. it's the down points of a commodity cycle that push borderline economic wells into