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Yellow Media Inc T.YLO



TSX:YLO - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by marcroberton Sep 28, 2011 1:49pm
330 Views
Post# 19094191

YLO's Survival Will Go Like This

YLO's Survival Will Go Like This1. Cutting the dividend on the common ASAP makes perfect sense and I am happy it happened sooner rather than later. You don't give a crap about keeping yield investors on the common - they're already gone, you care about debt reduction.2. They need to reorganize and go leaner because that's what online media is about. This can take a few years, but interest rates are at generational lows. Look at RAD (rite-aid). I took a shot at the common shares in 2008 in the 20 cent range. Nobody thought they could survive with their debt load. The stock went to 2.50 when the market recovered. They are still here (1.10) and have trimmed their debt. They have huge cash flow and less losses, but things are slowly improving as they close unprofitable stores, refinanced etc. Its 2 years later now. So if YLO can trim without chapter 11 action, and retool the business model, lighten up on staff etc., they might have a chance, right? 3. For debt and C/D pref buyers at these levels, you need to understand what would force the CO to throw in the towel and go under creditor protection. This is the ultimate event that pref holders want to avoid, because their prefs become worthless when the Co emerges from BK debt free. So the question is whether they are just going through the motions as they are required to do until the ship sinks or lenders force liquidation, or whether there is hope to stabilize the debt and right-size it while the business is modified. Maybe we can we assume that lenders will not force liquidation because assets aren't worth that much? Unfortunately, it looks like we're going into a pretty soft economy, so the timing may be bad to look to increase ad-generated revenue in new online properties. 4. C/D buyers today also need to ask themselves if at the current price of 3.30, a dividend suspension to these prefs is priced in or not and whether the current price is the result of overreaction and traders who bought the last few weeks who are cutting their losses (any comparisons to past situations with prefs would be useful). Remember, the dividend is cumulative, so the only event that screws you out of those dividends if they suspend them, is bankruptcy (correct me if i'm wrong). Unless they go under, those suspended dividends go into an IOU account for future payment.
Bullboard Posts