RE:RE:There are 2 possible companiesHow do I arrive at $2 or $3 a share. Your question is a very reasonable one.
Firstly, at current commodity prices, the businesses will never earn a profit. So, the intrinsic value is zero.
However, in the metal space, hope springs eternal. Investors are willing to pay real money for a shot at cashing in when and if commodity prices blossom.
There is no way to measure the future sentiment of investors.
There are just over 300 million shares so $2 equals $600m and $3 would equal $900m in enterprise value. The current cash will get burned so let's say the EV is the same as asset book value.
There are no math numbers to rely on. It is about sentiment.
Also, it would take 6 to 10 years in court if Guatemala confiscated the property.
Keep in mind that Guatemala can legally expropriate the mine at about 50% of fair value.
The law says "full fair value" but in reality, Guatemala will never pay $2b in a situation where the market cap for the whole company is under $1b.
My assessment is that the current share price would be very low if Escobal gets going within one year. However, the share price was in nosebleed territory when it was priced in the $20 to $30 range. It was irrationally priced. Keep in mind that Guatemala was never classed as if it was a Quebec or Nevada jurisdiction.
If I owned THO now I would probably hold on. From the outside, I may linger at the doorsteps and wait for $4. Nothing is likely to be sorted out soon. Also, a deal with the government may include higher taxation or a working interest in the mine or ???. Guatemala may claw away some value.
I see THO as a well-managed company. What they can't control, they can't control.
mat