RE:RE:My Take - Part 2Hi Nawar. I argue that Saudi Arabia indeed has a great deal to lose. The opportunity cost of lower oil relative to other OPEC members is proportional to thier daily production relative to other members. (See except from my article below). If they play the long game with this, it will have cost them billions.
What I argue though, is despite the financial cost, there are ``fringe`` benefits that only Saudi can attach value to and quantify over the long term (that may or may not offset lost revenue) which include squeezing US Shale plays, squeezing Iran, and securing market share in Asia. If than benefit exceeds the current dolllar value cost, they would have incentive to play this out.
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For each day OPEC decides not to act, it is costing members hundreds of millions of dollars. However, not all members are equally impacted. Saudi Arabia has hundreds of billions in reserves to withstand lower oil prices to cover fiscal deficits along with a lower marginal cost of production. Kuwait also has a relatively low marginal cost of production that provides them some breathing room. However, this is not about Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. In my view, the future of OPEC is at stake. Despite their vast oil reserves, Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, may
default on current debt obligations with sustained lower oil prices. With over half of OPEC members relying on prices of $100 or more to meet their government spending, it's only a matter of time before OPEC begins to crack at the seams without reducing output. The looming prospect of even lower oil prices after November 27th should no decision be reached presents a more dire picture for the future of OPEC and extended oil price volatility.
OPEC may decide not to cut production on November 27th and wait for global demand to improve. However, what does OPEC hope to achieve by waiting? By running some simple calculations using the table above and comparing current prices to a $100 target price for Brent, the daily opportunity cost of holding current production is about half a billion dollars for each day prices remain at current levels:
Waiting up to a year for demand to recover without ceding production will come at an enormous cost for each member country forcing most to tap into reserves to balance fiscal deficits. For those who are short on reserves, they will need to increase sovereign debt.