GREY:TBTEF - Post by User
Post by
ocean112on Jul 08, 2015 11:39am
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Post# 23903073
Almost comical...
Almost comical... everytime TBE dips below $0.70 a share - everyone starts to panic. Predictions of $0.50 range emerge. The doomsday nay sayers come out. Folks - GET A GRIP!
Nothing has changed with Twin Butte. They are puttering along nicely. Q2 will be positive since average WTI will likely have come in $2 above thier $58 forecast. They may do more drilling as alluded to in thier recent news release. Dividend is fully funded with hedges and they are layering in more hedges at $65 WTI. Payout ratio is well under 100%. Debt to cashflow is WELL under 1.8 - HOW MANY OTHER OIL PLAYERS CAN SAY THIS??? Apart from lowering production (which i'm not thrilled with) - almost every other metric is in the green.
As with all things - Greece, Iran, etc - will all play out - and I would argue the Iran deal has been out there for quite some time so this is no surprize to the market and likely priced into the stock. Right now - Greece is what is affecting WTI - the potential breakup of the EURO - flight to the "safe" US dollar - which will add downward pressure to WTI.
If you are trying to guess where the bottom on this is - it's foolish - since at current prices you are getting a nearly 20% yield - if you buy today - you're average cost is about $0.60 by year end with dividends....think about that for a second - every month they pay down your average cost by 1 cent....that is HUGE at these levels.
I haven't a clue why TBE is selling off - perhaps frustrated shareholders who gave up - but I think I warned you a few months ago - this was heading down from the $0.80 level - but now this is in clear buy territory - this should stablize - and eventually - slowly - move it's way up back to $0.75 range and hover......
Good luck.