Twin Butte Energy Ltd TBTEF

Re: Looking back versus looking ahead versus valuation

[cigarbutt1]

Looking at oil price charts in CDN $, here is some interesting data concerning potential cash flows from operations and valuation.

-average of the last 5 trading days leading to Dec 20, 2015:
       -WCS: 30.62
       -Cdn light: 44.11

-average of the last 5 trading days leading to Dec 20, 2016:
       -WCS: 49.14
       -Cdn light: 64.31

-average of the last 3 trading days:
       -WCS: 51.95
       -Cdn light: 65.83

Observations:
-Between Dec 20 2015 to Dec 2016,
       -WCS increased by 60.5% (!)
       -Cdn light increased by 45.8%
       -heavy oil differential narrowed
       -WCS in Dec 2016 was more than Cdn light in Dec 2015 by 11.4% (!)

-Since Dec 2016
       -WCS has increased by 5.7%
       -Cdn light has increased by 2.3%

Relevant conclusions:
       -Value of TBE assets in Dec 2016 was "substantially" higher than in Dec 2015
       -Value increase for both medium and heavy oil assets (but especially for heavy oil)
       -Value of the TBE assets increased since the date of the acceptance of the winning bid,
        but value increase since then is fairly small
       -Increasing value of the heavy oil may explain the new drilling alluded to earlier on this
        board in the Lloydminster area
       -TBE assets producing relatively healthy cash flows since the bid acceptance
       -interesting scenario for the fulcrum security