The end of the beginningFINAL POST (perhaps not)
Closing announced. Claims process on its way.
Maybe I should just turn the page. And I will. Absolutely. But perhaps after the final chapter.
TBE was a real challenge to analyze during the oil downturn.
In the end, the TBE debenture investment turned out well for valid reasons but, I have to say, humbly, that luck was an overriding factor in terms of the extent of the gain. There was a lot of number crunching, dissection of financials, assessment of fundamentals but, in this specific case, the most important lesson was about human nature. For sure, reforms are needed. Badly. But we happen to live in a great system. To succeed admirably is the goal. With equanimity and humility. This greed thing really makes me feel sick. Fortunately, a great life. Would never sacrifice values for the sake of money.
From the filing on, I recurrently shared concerns with the Receiver. They were helpful, reasonable and provided feedback. And this will continue. Essentially, receivership allowed adequate price discovery and a fair process. Perhaps somehow, this could have been avoided, but, at least, value recovery was maximized under the circumstances dictated by the reality of the industry dynamics. Interesting for the silent majority.
For the oil industry, the future, as always, remains highly uncertain.
I would not bet the farm. Don't like the smell. Not anymore.
From a February 2017 publication of Alberta Venture:
“There’s a kind of poetry to the collapse of Twin Butte Energy, insofar as one cause of its popularity – appealing to common shareholders – ultimately blinded it to portents of its downfall. But there’s certainly no poetic justice, only a lot of creditors hoping to get some shred of their investment back”.
Time for reminiscence.
For those so inclined,
Ode to the Distressed Debenture
Dividend model fuelled by credit,
Sustainable, no end in sight?
Cyclical, things got tight,
Where’s cash when you most need it?
Daily extensions,
Running out of options.
Sorry, turkeys don’t fly,
And trees don’t grow to the sky.
Thanksgiving may come early,
Perhaps any day.
To the bottom go,
But headwinds abated,
Reversion to the mean expected,
For Riyadh, Aramco IPO.
Armageddon, only game in town?
No, not this time around,
Oriental friends can still be found,
Maybe with the next showdown.
With fecal and other matters,
Coming from yellers and bashers.
All sorts of players,
Some capable but not others.
Questioning how one fares,
But then, who really cares?
Arrogance does not pay,
Perhaps most on Judgement Day.
So then, fulcrum, difficult to spot,
In fleeting moments of hardship and duress,
levering between pitfalls of judgement;
Though may lead to a jackpot,
When skill and luck join to overwhelm distress,
And give way to immense contentment.
Felt like catching a falling knife,
Right in the middle of a strife.
The shred ended up considerable,
Substantial, profitable.
Mixed emotions however,
Observing each maneuver,
Hungry eyes all over the horizon,
Between the threats and dissent,
With us or zero, skinners looking on,
Eye to eye says the dictum,
Never low enough, ad infinitum.
The outcome could have been different.
Many more would be now smiling,
Even if money is not everything.
Some say it was their call,
The last act before the fall.
For others Russian roulette,
Empty the house, even the closet.
What about fairness,
And reasonableness?
On both sides of the aisle,
No compromise, won’t go the extra mile,
So, closing in, came filing,
Time for a fling?
Can’t you smell that smell?
But the master rang the bell.
Perhaps not so fast,
Need to look at the cast,
Issues of discovery and timing,
The screen needs some rewriting.
Majority postion,
No need for defection.
Bottom line, ask debbies.
No need for fees, stipends or decrees.
No vote, won’t appease,
Won’t go on my knees,
Do what you please,
You can even throw the keys.
Was there a window,
Some kind of friendly throw,
When circling the drain,
And feeling the pain,
When on the brink?
Yeah right, but way before filing,
One would come to think,
If rationality is your thing.
You may like fairy tales, all of it,
But I don’t take that bullshit.
Words are not enough,
All too clear,empty bluff.
The gate keeper was deductive,
When they said nothing substantive.
For shareholders, it didn’t matter,
With CCAA or whatever,
It took too long to decipher,
The game is now over.
But then again, do you know,
What the epilogue will show?
Turning over backwards,
For the net loss carryforwards.
Looking for value in the pools?
Are you aliens or just fools?
Can’t you read financials statements?
Are you missing essential elements?
Or just lacking imagination?
A twig or log type of question.
Cash flows, tax pools, turning every stone,
No fat, no meat, down to the bone.
To be made whole, by any measure,
Like icing on the cake, for sure.
But, effectively, an empty shell,
Nothing left, what the hell.
Dragging feet and procrastination,
To finally close the transaction.
Want my share, bottomless pit,
Too late, too far, must admit.
Let’s get, after the mess,
A clean slate and a claims process.
Long gone, circling vultures,
Let’s get rid of those debentures.
Liquidating dividend,
Let’s bring this to an end.
Pound of flesh, you take,
Liquidate what is at stake.
All bets are off, said the dealer,
The debenture holder or the owner.
But incentives do matter,
Especially the kind darker;
In this case, it was better
To bet against the headquarter.
The return amazing,
Unfortunately foul smelling.
The dark side of human nature,
Not disclosed in financial literature.
Choose your partners wisely,
In business and all of essence.
Maybe the best way to be happy,
And lead a full existence.
GLTA.
Et pour toi, Le Spculateur et les autres du mme acabit.
Twin Butte est mort. Vive Twin Butte!
Tu as dcid de mettre une partie de ton pcule
Dans un titre spculatif de Twin Butte;
Tu aurais pu finir dans la chnoute,
Sans l’OPEP, la chance et le retour du pendule.
Opportuniste et quitable,
Juste et profitable.
Bien distribuer le reliquat,
De faon claire et sans clat.
Bien dormir avec les gestes et les actions,
Judicieux et raisonnable jusqu’ la conclusion.
Bonne chance tous.
Cigarbutt