from Tilray's slanted 'team' - or you can do some actual research and take the overwhelmingly negative opinions of Tilrays performance, in other words - reality
We’ve lowered our fair value estimate of Tilray’s stock.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Tilray Brands
What We Thought of Tilray Brands’ Earnings
Tilray Brands TLRY issued disappointing results for the fiscal third quarter (February-ended) of 2024, including slower revenue growth and margin contraction. Changes to our forecast alone imply a valuation reduction roughly in line with the ensuing market price decline of about 21%. In addition, we’ve removed all contributions to our fair value estimate from Tilray’s ownership of US multistate operator Medmen’s senior secured convertible notes, as a complete write-off of the investment seems inevitable. The asset had made up about 20% of our fair value estimate.
Due to these factors, we are cutting our fair value estimate to $2. As reflected in our Very High Uncertainty Rating, changes to our forecast can have dramatic effects on our fair value estimates, especially as Tilray has yet to achieve positive free cash flow. Shares trade close to our updated fair value estimates.
Tilray reported net revenue of $188 million in the quarter, down 3% sequentially. The third quarter tends to be weak because of fewer cannabis and alcohol purchases during the winter. Still, the 5% sequential decline in cannabis revenue included some lost market share and price compression, driving us to lower our fiscal 2024 net revenue forecast to $755 million from $783 million and our adjusted EBITDA forecast to $60.5 million from $72.6 million.