It's not bashing if it's true.
Market Growth Deceleration
The report points to a significant deceleration in Canada's recreational cannabis market. Official data from Statistics Canada shows a mere 2% year-over-year (YoY) increase in recreational sales in the first quarter of 2024, a decline from 11% YoY growth in the previous quarter. However, Hifyre scanner data suggests a potential rebound, with 7% and 10% YoY growth projected for April and May, respectively.
Top LP Sales Trends
Among the top five LPs, Village Farms International
, Organigram Holdings
, and
Cronos Group saw double-digit sales growth from January to May 2024, while
Decibel Cannabis Company and Tilray Brands
experienced declines.
Specifically, Tilray's sales fell 17% YoY during the March-May period, whereas Village Farms grew by 41%, OGI by 24%, and Cronos by 34%. Village Farms now holds an 8.6% market share, up from 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Leading Players By Segment
Village Farms International has significantly increased its share in the flower category, from 10% in the first quarter of 2022 to 16% in the first quarter of 2024. Decibel Cannabis Company leads the pre-roll segment with a 14% market share, up from 5% two years ago.
On a proforma basis (including HEXO and Redecan), the biggest segment share loser in pre-rolls has been Tilray, with its share down to 11% in 1Q24 from approximately 24% in 1Q22. Canopy also dropped by 6 points over the same period.
In the vape category, Motif Labs has emerged as a leader, growing its share from 3% in the first quarter of 2022 to 20% in the first quarter of 2024. Auxly Cannabis Group
Growth Trends By Formats
The three-month data through May shows that flower remains the largest category, accounting for 37% of sales. This is followed by pre-rolls at 31%, vape products at 16%, concentrates at 5%, edibles at 5%, beverages at 2%, and oils at 2%. Zuanic notes that "compared with the US market, pre-roll over indexes in Canada, while vape under indexes."
For context, the flower segment was 41% of sales in the first quarter of 2023, down from 48% in the first quarter of 2022 and 57% in the first quarter of 2021. Pre-rolls have grown from 17% in the first quarter of 2021 to 27% in the first quarter of 2023. Vape products have shown a steady increase from 14% in 2021 to 16% in 2023. Edibles have remained relatively stable, while concentrates have seen slight growth over the same period.