Tilray has a prime competitive position in global cannabis By 2030, the global cannabis industry is widely expected to be dominated by three to perhaps five large-cap companies (based on the historical trajectory of similar industries like alcohol, beverages, and tobacco).
This consolidation phase is likely to be fueled by key regulatory developments such as the rescheduling of cannabis at the federal level in the U.S., the entrance of additional mega-cap beverage, tobacco, and pharmaceutical companies into cannabis, and a steady rise in demand across the globe.
Tilray's braintrust thus seems to be positioning the company to capitalize on these longer-term catalysts. Alcohol, in short, is probably little more than a side venture designed to get the cannabis giant to the forthcoming golden age of cannabis. Tilray has a prime competitive position in the global cannabis landscape and an immense amount of staying power thanks to its recent pivot to non-cannabis revenue streams.
Let's break these points down further. Most analysts expect global cannabis sales to top $248 billion by the end of the decade. With an international footprint that spans 21 countries at present, multiple jumping off points in play for when U.S. sales become federally permissible, and an ongoing build out of a diverse and stable revenue stream, Tilray looks like a strong contender to be in that small group of companies vying for top-dog status in the global cannabis industry come 2030.
What does this all mean? With a minuscule 5% share of the global cannabis market by decade's end, Tilray's market cap could realistically grow by an astonishing 20 times over the next seven years. This eye-catching valuation estimate isn't composed of fairy dust and unicorns, either. As things stand now, there's little doubt that cannabis will eventually become widely accepted as both a recreational and medicinal product across the globe. Tilray, for its part, simply has to stay in the game to deliver life-altering gains for early shareholders.
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