RE:If only...I have just started to take an interest in TRQ, so my take, for what it's worth, is as follows:
- The country risk has investors edgy - this is a real risk but it would be foolish for Mongolia to exploit Rio Tinto and risk friendly foreign investment. Also, only a top-tier major could develop and operate this project.
- The underground delay looks like initial shabby work by RT but it will be corrected - it's not a project breaker.
- The current copper price is weak but there is no doubt that it will increase over time.
- There is a funding risk becuase of the underground delay and higher costs but TRQ currently has access to about $3.1 billion which may be good for 2 to 3 years. The power plant will be project financed. So no near term shareholder dilution risk.
- The Sailingstone debacle got a lot of undeserved attention.
In summary, the bears launched a major attack but I beleive that thy are running out of steam, hopefully into a squeeze. Famous last words! But I am buying.
Straite wrote: They dug the underground mine as quickly as the stock is digging its way down... Would you buy/buy more or wait? Is there some non-public information out there? Is the decline only caused by the delays and potential overcosts? I wouldn't mind too much about delays, more about potential dilution or debt increases. Delays can be fixed by time for patient investors. (i.e. if all future cash flows are pushed back 1 year, after waiting 1 year will give you the same present value.) On the other side, dilution/debt increases have a more long-lasting effect. Any thoughts?