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Alphamin Resources Corp V.AFM

Alternate Symbol(s):  AFMJF

Alphamin Resources Corp. is a Mauritius-based company, which is engaged in the production and sale of tin concentrate from the Bisie Tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Company sells its product to one customer, Gerald Metals SA. The Company’s Mpama South development project is adjacent to the producing Mpama North mine and comprises a new underground development portal, processing plant and associated equipment. The Company has developed and brought the Bisie Tin Mine project in production.


TSXV:AFM - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by carbideon Feb 11, 2019 11:42pm
115 Views
Post# 29350830

Riskiest possible jurisdiction

Riskiest possible jurisdictionThis is a good project.  Very high-grade tin.  North Kivu is just about the most dangerous place in the world to do business, outside of say Taliban-controlled northern Afghanistan, and maybe on a par with Venezuela.  Plenty of armed groups roaming the countryside looking for trouble in this lawless land with little oversight from the central (Atlantic) government, and influence from several foreign states and armed thugs doing business with child labour, cash and arms for metals, etc.  Very remote, little infrastructure.  Not to mention ebola.  Transportation was an issue, but they built this road.  Let's see if they can construct it somewhat on time and on budget, without significant disruption from state- and non-state actors.  Apparently, this "tin province" is highly prospective.  Not much exploration carried out to date proves this thesis.  Based on tin fundamentals, I wouldn't forecast much higher prices any time soon than that in the FS and current spot.  Not much demand growth on the horizon I can see.  Supply looks stable, but with no production cliff apparent.  Thus I'm neutral to bearish on Sn.  Sprott is getting paid almost 20% as the senior lender.  For an equity holder, with a 250m enterprise value, and a projected 70m cash flow, based on the feasibility study, this is about a 30% levered return.  Not bad for the major shareholder, but for the little guy on the TSX not much visibility into the geopolitical machinations, given limited disclosure by the company about the goings on in this dramatic part of the world.  A while back the CEO was arrested by Kinshasa.  Pretty sketchy.  Wouldn't be surprised by kidnappings, extortion schemes, sabotage, or other cause for force majeure, which could invoke certain clauses of the credit facility.  Given the risk, it's better to own the debt on this.  I'm from Missouri.  Let's see if they can drive down debt, instate a dividend, and do some expansion drilling.  Could be a good buy with more information, or at a lower price, or both.
Bullboard Posts