further thoughts
this is an answer to an Email question on my recnt post; thought the answer might be of interest to others--cheers
"How would the share price of Teck change if they fuse to Alcan or make and attempt, with Alcan, to buy Alcoa?"
I don't currently own Teck, but I don't think I'd be selling it at this level.It could easily drop $8, but long term, I think it could double in the next two years.
First, I don't see a combination of Teck and Alcan bidding for AA. I can see Teck and Alcan or AL & AA but not all three.AA is in my opinion a POS. Teck wouldn't want any part of it. Al would only bid for AA to fend off the current bid; I don't think they want or need it. I could see an AL, Teck combo; possibly even a merger as opposed to a T/O of one by the other. I think this is my most favoured outcome although there are a LOT of other options.