RE:RE:RE:5i Research comments
Specific wrote: wtf......down 22% in the last 2 wks
Nat gas is down 22% in the past month and our production was below expectations on the Q, which equals a 'miss'... How your surprised by this is more of a 'WFT' than the actual price action!
We are lumped in with the sector being a gas play, even tho we are VERY disconnected with the gas market pricing as we are on fixed AECO agreements. Technically, we are disconnected with AECO pricing because we negotiate a much higher rate because it helps pay for our infrastructure CAPEX, growth and stability to the Brazilian market for the long term.
I know that, if you didn't before now you do too, and so do other readers on this board, but the majority of the general market people don't know that and I'll hazard the guess that most of the shareholders who pop in and out on general market movements don't know that. And you know what, screw them! It creates a buying opportunity for you, I and the others (which is way too many, because I've said too much responding to you) with this knowledge to make our portfolios more $$$. So... ZIP IT! It's raining 'Benjamins', let's just hold out our buckets and collect them!
Also, you gotta figure we grew the dividend from 8 cents to 19 cents in 5 quarters yet in the past 3 quarters the dividend hasn't grown... this slowdown/flatness would deter interest in us if your just taking a general look. Also for those astute enough to look out longer term, you have to assume that the large premium to AECO growth will have to end its trajectory at some point, which will cause a flattening/pullback on revenue metrics, at which point our growth numbers will mainly have to come from production growth rather than guaranteed offtake agreement premiums.