Aurcana Silver Corp V.AUN.H

napkin calcs at $30/oz silver

[jenkinjt]

    Terrific movement in this stock over the last few weeks, now looking uncertain which way to go. I see some fine calculations on the value of Aurcana following the immense dilution with a huge infusion of cash which Aurcana desperately needed. As of Sept 30th the company had a working capital deficiency of $14.2 million, and an accumulated deficit of $42.5 million, possily in addition to an outstanding debt to Trafigura of $3.4 million and the 50% commitment to Silver Wheaton for La Negra production in addition to the $3.90/oz produced on top of that.  Dire straits.        Following the deal here is a rough calculation of financial outcomes... please advise if you think I have erred!! 

   Year       REVENUE                         Cost /OZ at 8.23/oz      SAM loan cost   SRLP loan cost    BONUS   Profit  
    
2011         $37.5M (La  negra)        x1.25M oz= $10.29M     $8.3M                $8.85M                  $1.25M               $9.7MM
    
2012         $80M  (La N and Shftr)  x2.75Moz= $22.63M     $8.3M                 $8.85M                                     $41MM


2013            $150M                           x5.0Moz=$41.15M         $8.3M                     0                                            $100.5M                 


2014on       $150M                             x5.0Moz=$41.15M             0                       0                                              $109MM

ALL CALCULATIONS AT A PRICE OF $30/oz silver


based on 330 million shares in 2011 earnings would be .03/share
based on 400 million shares in 2012 earnings would be .10/share
based on 440 million shares in 2013 earnings would be .227/share
and 2014 and beyond earnings would be .25/share


There is good outlook that the mines have an extended life beyond 10 yrs. If the price of silver drops all bets are off. If it goes up so much the better!! Not a great return initially, but the price should someday hit $2-3 dollars/share, GLTA