| Goldman Sachs figures the industry needs to spend $150 billion over the next decade to address a projected 8-million-ton annual supply shortfall. Prices north of $10,000 a ton will be required to incentivize new development scenarios.
CRU, a metals research and consulting firm based in London, is less bullish about copper demand than many forecasters but still recognizes the supply-side constraints. Mines are getting smaller and more expensive to build, with more than one-third of future projects located in jurisdictions where investors face significant political and regulatory risks, such as Congo. “The stuff is in the ground,” says CRU’s head of base metals, Simon Morris. “It’s whether there’s really the will to do it.” |