A few replies to clear stuff up......montrus wrote:
"I would agree with that too. $4 is the minimum the company is worth at this time with the information we have. IF a buy-out/merger were to occur....I would think $6 CDN would be the at the high end. " In total agreement and this is my line of thought as well. When & IF assets are monetized, the real value should be around there. Taking into account some adjustments for O&G prices when/if it occurs.
"so what would the reason be that the high volumes would be buying the stock these days for only 20-25% upside if they got taken out for the $1.2B? Is a valid question. " Just to interject once again in your conversation, but i "may' have an explanation which could satisfy both of you and put this to rest. A large portion of that "high volume" could be accounted for by a reasonable assumption of the "conversion" event that happened over a month ago. As i indicated previously. You can't really blame the insiders not to take some major profits, when they were just handed a gift from heaven, having been able to buy in at 0.85. Which is an instant massive profit of 300%. But that said, some of the insiders/major holders definitely want an "exit" from this poistion, BUT at the same time, a different party is picking up the slack & definitely wants "in".
Navajojoe wrote:
"Actually a $7 share price works out to right around $2.0 billion." Actually not totally accurate. On a fully diluted basis and ALSO taking into account the critical debt, which you seem to have omitted or forgotten to include. Therefore, i stand by my orginal statement that it would be aproximately $2,5B at those levels. Not 2B.
"Considering the profitability of the production, and the ability to maintain a steady growth profile while reducing the share count, any takeout could easily value PIPE at $50,000/boed.That is $6/share." How do you figure or justify $50k/boepd when i just stated two examples, Leucrotta & Whitecap's asset purchase saying otherwise? And these are very recent examples btw. So no, i can't see anyone giving Pipe $50k per flowing....easily. Not saying it's totally impossible, It CAN happen if the acquirer has enough incentive & some decent synergies but unlikely. Those are almost oil type metrics But it could happen in different ways.......just not at $50k/boepd. But i do agree with your $6 target though.....8).
"IMO, that is the minimum that the majority shareholders will entertain. Otherwise, just continue to operate and return money to the shareholders." You would be surprised what the "majority" of s/h, or the "important" ones in this case, to get the deal through would entertain. It may not be the bottom of the barrel figure Mr. RuudinFrance has put out, but i do think about $5 would be enticing to many, depending on their motivation. Whether it would be enticing enough to those that count, is a different story.....
CashFlowAday wrote:
I am a holder but anyone who says 2B or more is delusional.
I don't think anyone is delusional, just "motivated" to get the best value they can. Aren't you as well as a dedicated s/h? Don't understand why you keep shooting yourself in the foot, both feet actually, inflicting pain on yourself for no "apparent" or valid reason.
"While produciton is similar in the Whitecap deal, the acreage is not. Pipestone has 90,000 acres. This means on an acreage basis pipstone is worth $272m. M&A is a long term game, nothing is longer term than acreage. "
Agreed, but that's only part of the equation and a crude attempt to extract value. And i do believe they have a tad more than 90K, but please someone correct me if i'm mistaken. Don't know what you mean by M&A is a long term game or if i even agree, but i think the P&P "reserves" factor of these ep's would have something to say about your statement here.......don't you think?
"1B to 1.5B (almost no chance it gets 1.5B). Reality is, Pipe is probably worth around 1B. If Riverstone doesnt like that, they will deal with massive opoortunity costs. 1.2B and I would sell right now. Collect a win and move on to other MUCH cheaper names at 1.2B. "
Not sure why you keep inflicting self inflicting wounds on yourself. You remind me of a character in a movie i saw not too long ago, where the antagonist keeps whipping himself, to mentally & physically punish his person for some reason. Still can't figure out what yours is here.
"Management has already wasted 1 year of opp cost not selling and porting into any of the mids/majors who are up 50% or more, lets see if they waste another. Everyone lives in la la land and Riverstones greed is going to cost us all. I am a shareholder, about 110k shares and I am disgusted that no deal has been had already. "
I don't know about "everyone" living in LaLa land, but i'm certain not everyone is completely oblivious to their immediate surroundings of what's at stake or going on. Don't think i get your line of thought here, but if you're really a "long time" s/h who bought at rock bottom prices in the last few years, didn't you have ample time & opportunity to "sellout" & exit at a generous profit? Even now? I really don't get what you're leaning towards....
"If they sold to CNQ, TOU or ARX, for 1B on Jan 1, our shares (now CNQ/TOU/ARX shares would be worth 50% more now)."
So you believe that these are the possible "suitors" for the company? Though i would say they are "possible" suitors for obvious reasons, they are probably not the most motivated ones or ones most likely to be interested........as there are more likely candidates with more reason to than those you've indicated above.....
GLTA