RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Dilution is coming in my opinion. However it doesn’t meanRandomGuy25 wrote: I think the point where your analysis is flawed is simply the order of operations. The Noteholder does not need to short until they receive a request to make a payment in equity, at which point they have no risk in shorting.
Now, the Noteholder could be shorting in advance of receiving such a request. But if they did that, they would be taking the risk that someone came in and paid off their note in cash. There is some protection in the note in this because there is a requirement to repay the note at a premium. This allows the Noteholder to short even before receipt of a request from Hexo to make a payment in equity and still be generally hedged.
Another way of putting this: the Noteholder is good to go from a shorting standpoint and has ensured that they cannot get caught in a short squeeze.
However, my bet is that other hedge funds are also shorting. They would be shorting in order to try to force Hexo to complete another short-covering offering like the one completed in August. Those hedge funds would be taking risk on the note being paid off unelss they covered that risk off by buying calls. Hexo tried to signal that a payoff is coming through the deferral of their AGM, or at least that is my interpretation. AGM signals a massive dilution event is coming that requires shareholder approval, or a sale is coming. Issue with a sale is that they previously rejected an offer at a much higher price than current. Redecan representatives would have a loss aversion problem with such an approach. Makes it a low probability outcome from my perspective.
Bingo! So it comes down to massive dilution or a sale to another LP. Thanks for confirming what I was saying that earlier. With a price of 78 cents looks like either scenario is not good for Hexo and shareholders. I would agree that it is massive dilution plus lets not forget a doggy 10/1 reverse split!