Just a few commentsOver the past year, BTI has traded approximately 14 million shares at an average price of $1.22-1.23. One could conclude “watching paint dry”, but it’s interesting that with so little news in the past number of months (Patent NR in November & Scarpa MPS II NR at the end of July), that the SP has been sustained around these levels. At some level, there is belief that something of significance is occurring behind the scenes.
We have heard that we are engaged in discussions with a number of pharma’s, we have also been told that TAA’s are generating income (I know, I know the video and all that “stuff”) and from this we should conclude that there are probably multiple pharmas that have the peptide in the hands of their scientists and gaining some practical experience with the vector. MedImmune has had the peptide for over 2 years and probably know more about the peptide than anyone – including biOasis. Now it’s possible that sometime over the past 2 years MedImmune concluded that “it wouldn’t work”, but I suspect that if this were the case, that would have filtered down into our SP long ago. Yes I know we have had some great results from MedImmune, but that’s not the entire ballgame.
Let’s assume for the moment that MedImmune has determined the vector works for their purposes. If that’s true, why haven’t they acted – moved forward? They haven’t consummated a licensing deal with us yet, because they haven’t had to in my opinion. This is just how BD operates. They do nothing until they absolutely have no other alternative. My suspicion is that MedImmune’s intelligence within the pharma scientific community is alive and functioning and that they are “sniffing the wind” on a regular basis to determine who’s working with the vector and the level of success. It is that threat that will drive the BD folks within pharma to act.
In addition, pharma will not act until they see their antibody/biologic cross the BBB and bind to their specified target within the CNS in efficacious quantities. In the mind of pharma, the vector needs vetting, as does their biologic and Receptor Mediated Transcytosis. Were in the position of having to apologize for a long line of RMT failures. I know that most of the shareholders are aware of this, but this is where it hits the fan, this is why it takes so long to consummate a deal with pharma. Many pharma executives roll their eyes at the mere mention of RMT, but I think that more and more have warmed up to the idea that success comes after multiple failures and examining our data. Still, if you’re a scientist, you’re not going to fall on any sword for this within the organization unless you are absolutely convinced of the vector’s viability.
BiOasis in my opinion, has passed the starvation & wait test for the BD pharma folks. That is, they’ve probably determined that desperation due to finances or shareholder fatigue is not going to be a significant motivator within biOasis to consummate a deal. From my understanding, the recent warrant exercise has gone well and increased our cash balance significantly. Some American interest of late suggests that our message might be traveling outside our borders where appetites for pharma deals and larger cheque books exist.
Seems reasonable that we should expect some form of deal(s) in 2016. What form they take? I don’t know. Seems biOasis is proceeding down the path of licensing, but vector success & competition amongst pharma will drive what sort of “deal” they want to put on the table.