Mexicomike: CCE should be trading way higher...I had an interesting conversation with Chris Grove today. The PP is going to be fully subscribed and perhaps over-subscribed and they plan to close it next week. I had forgotten that a small PP was done in December and that is probably why the stock is weak right now. But the fact that buyers are going ahead even though the market price is slightly below the PP offering suggests to me that people put a high value on the attached warrants, OR, there are specs selling cheap units from previous deals and then rolling money back into the new PP. I still hold shares and warrants from the prior placements but I may grab some more this weekend now that I have paid off my income tax bill for the year and I know how much money I have left.
Secondly, the PEA for Ashram used metals assumptions that are much lower than the current price range for most (or all) of the production. Even so the NPV for the project suggests a value well above the current market cap for CCE, and that means the Blue River tantalum project is carried for free. But the PEA did not assign any value at all to the by-product production of fluorspar. Fluorspar is now trading at or close to record levels, and Ashram would be producing something in the range of 70K tons per year! So the real value of a mine development is even higher.
Now what I find ridiculous is that other REE juniors trade with a MC 5 times higher than CCE, even though they are impaired prospects that will probably never achieve a producing mine. Again, that just illustrates to me how cheap the stock is right now. I have been on board this story for more than a decade and I am not giving up now, but its certainly frustrating sometimes to watch other companies getting a premium value while we inch ahead. I still think the economics are going to carry the day and to my knowledge Ashram remains the most attractive on a stand-alone basis for potential economics. Getting the cap-ex will be a challenge but if REE prices continue rising and supply becomes an issue I still think someone steps up to write a check and move things forward.
cheers!
mike