RE: Lesson to be learnt here-I think you've got it partially wrong.
CCU problems are:
1. bad hedging program (management screw-up)
2. operational issues (management screw-up)
3. credit crunch (management screw-up plus horrible timing of a general credit crunch)
Low grades don't matter. What matters is cost/pound.
CCU hit the perfect storm.
I have no idea where it goes. Anywhere between 0 and 5 dollars in the next 3 years.
1. Of course even in the worst case scenario money can/will be made. Shareholders will likely get shafted but debenture holders, debt holders, insiders and whoever was on the other side of the copper contract (Sempra?) will be OK.
2. We might get a takeover. In this case shareholders will get shafted for sure, maybe not to the extent in the 1st case.
3. We might get trough. For that to happen the company will need $30-40 mil in financing and get Jesus Christ or Warren Buffet on the board so he won't agree to sell out the company for a cushy package in the next 2-3 years.