RE:RE:At 1.28 C/sh, are we undervalued?Thanks for your comments.
My 1.40+C came from
1. 0.4 C/sh div
2. Thai asset with 1.84 MMBOE 2P reserves net to POE at oil price of 55 USD/bbl in the 3rd party calculation. Therefore, the incremental 2P reserves will come from the higher oil price (tail end effect) and successful infill program in 2021. I assumed 2P reserves is constant, the depletion in 2021 was compensated by new barrels.
3. Based on IHS Energy and C&C reservoir databases, the 2P reserves onshore Thailand was sold at 15-20 USD/bbl depending on the market conditions.
4. Thai asset generated ca. 27 USD/bbl post tax (based on my simple calculation). Therefore, it is not reasonable to sale the asset below 18-20 USD/bbl of 2P and let the buyer to get ca. 7 USD/bbl margin. I then assumed the sale price at 18 USD/bbl, resulting in ca. 40 MMCAD for the transaction
5. I have no clue on Sawn lake but I assigned some values for the sale ca. around 5-8 MMCAD.
6. I also assigned some values on the remaining cash in the company after 0.4C dividend.
From the above, I came up with 50 MMCAD without 0.4 C/sh dividend. The total value is then around 1.4+C/sh before dividend.
However, these are all my estimations. What do you think?
Thank you.