C-Com Satellite Systems Inc V.CMI

Thoughts on WiFi 6 Market Opportunity (part of response)

[FormerHedgie]

This is a response that I wrote to a comment someone made to my previous post.  I don't love the way the comments get buried.  I thought this was a valuable post that was worthy of being its own post so here it is.

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Appreicate the gratitude!  I am hoping that we are going for revenues substantially higher that that give the market opportunities that CMI has created with its new products!  Think about an antenna product for the residential wifi market that is expected to be worth U$16.1 in 2025

https://www.statista.com/statistics/947604/worldwide-wireless-router-market-value/

I think we are entering a new era for WiFi technology.  WiFi 6 is a game changer do to the ability to delivery signal longer distances with more dense signal / data throughput.  I see the 5.2 billion WiFi 6 enabled untis will ship by 2025 according to the WiFi steering group.  I assume this will include wifi enabled phones etc...  I suspect that the CMI product may be suited to the WiFi router side of the market which I saw a stat that 336 million devices were shipped last year.

https://www.wi-fi.org/beacon/the-beacon/wi-fi-6-shipments-to-surpass-52-billion-by-2025

You look at products like Eero and other units that are beginning to ship are changing the WiFi market.

So, for me, the market opportunity is WAY larger than a $30M opportunity. 

One thing that is yet to be revealed is what CMI's utlimate go to market strategy will be. I think initially they will ship finished goods.  At one point, I spoke to Leslie Klein and he mentioned the potential for an asset light IP licensing approach.  For now, I prefer the finished goods strategy because I don't think CMI is prepared to defent their IP if it is shared with others.  For that reason, I think we need to preserve cash.

HOPE THE BEST, PLAN FOR THE WORST!!!!

[Ciao]

I was throwing the $30M as a potential year 1 rev bump with market acceptance and initial product launch and ramp-up, so that might occur in 2025 / 2026. Another year of dividends is $2M off cash on hand and won't make much of a difference now. If needed thet P.O.s in hand are used to secure a line of credit or worse case a small financing in year 2 of the product launch. Let's see how

[Ciao]

Their working capital is $25M. That would be enough to support annual revenues of $75 to $100M. It'll take at least a year to see demand that high.  In the meanitme the market is valuing the company on its current business and assigning no value to its potential.