RE:RE:Drilling/Exploration News CRE vs Peers Jordsword, let us look back at CRE narrative then. And again what we write or say here has no impact on the company's performance or stock price, more like justification for why we are here..
- Before Nov 2021 PP, CRE investors' presentation was showing Phase 2 as part of the overall project. It was neither clearly stated that it will be done along with mine nor that will be done later as a separate project. Check the diagram lines they were solid in both Phase 1 and Phase 2.
- When the PP was announced the presentation was updated, and it was clearly stated that now that Phase 2 may never happen. The overall project diagram was revised and Phase 2 lines changed to dashed type. With the additional explanation that Phase 2 may not happen.
- MD&A that followed clearly stated that in order to proceed with Phase 2 the economics required to have feed for 30 yrs if I recall and that CRE will be focusing on obtaining permits and advancing Phase 1. The current mine lifespan is not sufficient.
- The hydroxide study was botched in my opinion to only prove the process itself, was not FS as we all expected and the market reacted with “Meh” so no impact. They haven’t even selected the site.
- The same NR (Aug 2022) did say that CRE has held discussions with several parties and a substantial number of non-disclosure agreements with potential strategic partners are now in place. Everyone on this board (including me) was convinced that all is in place and we just need the permit.
- So far there was never a mention to increase the deposit or the life of the mine for Phase 1, only as part of Phase 2.
- Permit news landed Nov 2022. So the last hurdle for financing was gone. So let's ask ourselves what happened between Aug 2022 and Jan 2023 in order to delay the investment decision for Phase 1? Nothing has changed, the same proven reserves and deposits, the same information in the data room that has been under review since Aug 2022. Only two things changed: an updated FS was provided that should even further solidify the economics AND a lukewarm summer drilling program.
- Listen to Eric’s interview after the permit, right there for the first time was mentioned that some parties expressed concerns regarding the life of the mine. This was never mentioned before! Why bring it now, what changed from Aug 2022 ongoing ‘data room reviews’?
- My answer to this is the lukewarm summer drill results that didn’t meet the expectations of the preferred partners. Otherwise, why hold the investment decision? I pointed that right after the interview as well in one of my posts.
- Since the permit, the narrative changed and now they are looking to expand the Rose mine, there is no mention of Phase 2 whatsoever. In any interview now, Management says “we waited for the permit and now want to expand the deposit”, but again no Phase 2 in the picture.
So my takeaway is that from the discussions they had, they want to go with a specific partner but that partner wants longer mine life for whatever reason (maybe PH2?). So the priory shifted to the drilling otherwise I see no reason for 3 months delay to announce the financing decision. At the end of the day, CRE always can announce that they are entering into an agreement under whatever conditions, if fulfilled, but obviously, they do not what to do it.
My dissatisfaction comes from the fact that the world’s economy is going downward and again CRE may miss the golden opportunity with any further delays. Making a deal in April or May can be completely different, prices may be different, the markets flashing red everywhere and possible doom and gloom around.
The golden time to strike was Dec 2022, riding on the high prices and EV sales and there is no known reason why this was not done if the company has the noted non-disclosure agreements.
Just when I’m trying to connect the dots something does not line up here and that’s why the delay…
As I said, I'm here to hopfully make decent profit, can walk away today with a profit too but do not want to leave anyting on the table for Bay Street crooks.