$5-7 for CUU, seriously You're right that $5-7 for CUU would be insane, insanely too low!!
25% of the Paramount Zone alone is worth $5 plus. Enjoy.
The estimate below uses the starter pit info from the 2008 PFS (821.1M Tonnes) of higher grade material (yet still not as high as our 2010/11 paramount drills would indicate). Silver is estimated to 1.7gpt (again).
Current, 3 yr average metal prices: Cu $3.43, Mo* $15.00, Au $1,311.00, Ag $24.75.
*Mo is same price as previous example
Ramp up production to 150 ktpd. All other parameters the same as the previous example. The main difference in this example is higher metal prices, higher production rate, and higher grade starter pit. I also brought Capex down to $3.52B for the 150 ktpd operation. After the starter pit is finished, the average SC grade is used in the calcs.
150 ktpd for 360 days/yr: Initial (Starter Pit) Net Revenue b4 taxes = $1,319,159,264.12 per year for the first 15.2 yrs, $1,056,224,768.73
per year for the remaining life of mine. Total LOM = 18.73 yrs.
Yr Mine revenue b4 taxes
-4 -$352,000,000
-3 -$704,000,000
-2 -$1,056,000,000
-1 -$1,408,000,000
1 $1,221,443,763
2 $1,130,966,447
3 $1,047,191,155
4 $969,621,440
5 $897,797,629
6 $831,294,101
7 $769,716,760
8 $712,700,704
9 $659,908,059
10 $611,025,981
11 $565,764,797
12 $523,856,294
13 $485,052,124
14 $449,122,337
15 $415,854,016
16 $385,050,014
17 $356,527,791
18 $264,319,223
19 $178,660,215
NPV@8%= $8,955,872,851 [CUU portion: 25% CUU after
75% Tck earn-in = $2,238,968,212.77]
IRR@ 8.00%= 20.62%
Divide the CUU portion by fully diluted shares
400.2M = $5.512 per share jmho, dyodd
Courtesy of Chappy.