Ceapro Inc V.CZO

7%

[prophetoffactz]

The S&P Biotech is now down about 12% this year alone with only about nine months complete. It's down ~59% of from its high of less than three years ago during the most brutal biotech bear market in history. As I've said, this is a time for survival in biotech and to prove resilience. The windfall gains will typically have to wait until interest rates start sustainably falling once again. boazklinghorn's darling ABCL is now down about 52% since the beginning of the year. ABCL is down a staggering ~92% in less than three years. Assets that don't make money and burn lots of cash with payouts long in the future are being hit hard. If the risk-free FED rate climbs to 7%, as JP Morgan's CEO believes may be in store, imagine what internal rate of return is needed for a microcap biotech given it isn't a risk-free asset. Its a very tough hurdle for many biotech companies to jump. High interest rates are a different world for biotech and many biotech companies are going into bankruptcy or reorganization as they struggle. CZO is positioned to pick over the rubble of a biotech landscape in crisis and see if it can combine assets to build a viable company that needs growing levels of cash to become a biopharma in the future. When interest rates start to fall again then it will be a new bull market. If the world is potentially headed to a risk-free FED rate of 7%, that it is currently unprepared for, there could be more sharp loses in biotech ahead. A 7% FED rate is a stunning 31% higher than the current FED rate of 5.33%. The Canadian economy could be crushed which could significantly help an exporter to the US like CZO as long as the US consumer holds up in CZO's product category. Let's hope CZO's plans include fortress cash balances, material near-term revenue generation, flexability to adjust in a continued biotech cash crunch, and that PGX progresses cleanly in this scale-up with a short time to potential pay-off. With high interest rates it needs to be a very compelling project to justify the risk. This is a market for caution until the dust settles. Some believe the world is headed to a nasty credit event as a decade of ~0% interest rates meets the sudden and unexpected shock of a 5-7% risk-free FED funds rate and the global economy copes with its debt.

 

[prophetoffactz]

"Jamie Dimon is still telling clients to prepare for a worst-case scenario of benchmark interest rates hitting 7% along with stagflation. .... Dimon, who has said rates may need to rise further to fight inflation, added that the difference between 5% and 7% would be more painful for the economy than going from 3% to 5% was." Bloomberg

[boazklinghorn]

Hey Proph as to ABCL maybe its time for an update.  -They are on schedule to complete their GMP lab next year to advance a multi year plan to become a vertically integrated drug develpoer -They recently expanded their partnership with Regeneron and iniciated a new program with Incyte.  -They currently have 9 molecules in clinical trials -Insiders have been heavy buyers all year -They

[EbbFlow88]

Some people may remember me from this board. I was a shareholder of CZO for almost 5 years and finally threw the towel in late 2021 after hearing so many promises from Gilles that led to absolutely nothing. The strategy kept changing and for the life of me I couldn't figure out why a simple deal for COq10 wasn't signed and STILL isn't signed today.  I defended CZO and finally

[EbbFlow88]

I'd also mention that GUD.TO is also a company I would prefer to own over CZO. Proven management team that own over 20% of the company, buying back shares, signing deals and building a profitable platform. It also hasn't performed well recently in terms of share price, but atleast managmeent owns it with me and they do what they say they are going to do.

[boazklinghorn]

Thanks for the heads up on GUD. Will give it a look.

[hoffbag]

ABCL and GUD have been great wealth destroyers.  The buybacks and insider trades in GUD over the past many years have been at lower and lower prices, cash incineration at its finest.  I called that POS out years ago and said going below 5.  The cult followers on the board revolted. Hope springs eternal.  so many safer and easier ways to invest.   

[EbbFlow88]

"so many safer and easier ways to invest. " Ain't that the truth. The past is the past with those names. I think you can make a strong argument that both are great buys today. I think the same with CZO from a value perspective but the difference is the ability to trust management. Gilles has given many reasons NOT to trust him.  Also, regarding the buybacks at GUD, they have

[Stinzo]

jokes, CZO removed the company presentation on the website....it was from Jan 2023 and promising alot probably 

[prophetoffactz]

The July 12, 2023 presentation is on their website. The news release with the financials, issued less than one month ago, had timelines for the avenanthramide clinical trial, PGX scale-up. They also said they were very active concerning strategic initiatives. This could mean new revenue opportunities and even a potential reverse-merger to NASDAQ, etc. This could involve a major change in the

[prophetoffactz]

"Gilles has given many reasons NOT to trust him." The base business has grown at a double digit rate for a decade. The agreement with Symrise has been extended and expanded. Symrise has complemented the partnership. You are getting all caught on in the development stage pipeline. Development stage assets are very risky with their development paths and timelines uncertain. No one has

[prophetoffactz]

"I defended CZO and finally just got to the point where I realized nothing was coming from it." CZO stronger than ever? 1) $11 million cash with no debt and $5.14 million in inventory on standby. 2) The deal with Symrise was recently extended. They are additionally developing a preservative free, powder beta glucan for their portfolio now.  3) Avenanthramide pill has been

[boazklinghorn]

Blah Blah Blah Gilles.  Blah blah Blah Pipeline.  Blah blah blah, the same old song and dance for the last 4 years.  Got a pick for us ya big chicken?

[prophetoffactz]

There you go... JPM is warning to buckle up... @carlquintanilla   Ugly desk notes

[prophetoffactz]

Here's a stock you could look at with a 2 year frame: MBX.to.

[prophetoffactz]

boazklinghorn asked for a stock pick on September 27, 2024. In less than 2 1/2 months MBX.to is now up 21.9% vs. the S&P Biotech ETF which is up 7.6%.  

[boazklinghorn]

Just one other note about ABCL they have been around about a third as long as CZO they have already had a market cap in the double digit billions and probably will again, because they have young fast capable mangers who can communicate the story. They embrace their shareholder community and buy their own stock with their own money.  They make fast aggresive adjustments  to a world that

[boazklinghorn]

OK I cant stop myself. Imagine. CZO has a young vibrant leader who recruits some brilliant young execs who want to change the world . Like Elon they sleep on the shop floor running experimnets and eat pizza 6 days a week . They burn up the phone lines selling their ideas and raising cash. Hell they might even change the website dumping the image of the two geriatrics that look like a Depends ad

[prophetoffactz]

"OK I cant stop myself. Imagine. CZO has a young vibrant leader who recruits some brilliant young execs who want to change the world" A young and vibrant leader could very well have gotten over his skiis and lost it all in the worst biotech bear market in history. Gilles has been a cautious, conservative, calculated, and steady hand who has tried to develop a multi-asset pipeline within

[boazklinghorn]

Youre right Proph exactly right he is slow and cautious. So much so that the stock price has been rangebound for a decade and is the same as it was ten years ago. Just a few more decades and we can all cash out. He has over ten millin to pick over the bones of what?? What can you buy for ten million?? Rehtorical. Nothing, thats what you can buy with ten million canadian dollars. So between all of

[prophetoffactz]

"He has over ten millin to pick over the bones of what??" CZO has $11 million cash, no debt, and $5.14 million in inventory on standby for a business with >50% margins. He has the cash to get to key strategic milestones like PGX scale-up and a partnership deal providing important validation for PGX. CZO has said it is in talks with serious comapnies that understand the importance of

[boazklinghorn]

FYI Gilles has said a ton of shyt in the last ten years. The next time something he has said actually happens will be the first time.. Again 10 million buys nothing. 

[boazklinghorn]

Anyhow enough he said she said, its boring. Give us a pick ya coward.

[Hopeforthebest]

Just a case in point, 20 years ago on this date in 2003, Ceapro's stock price was $0.39 per share. In 2023 so far, the stock price has dropped more than 45% and dropping. In the same time period gagnon has eaten through $3,000,000.00 in cash. What has all of this brought us? 1- Massive inventory ($5,000,000.00) of product that is wasting away on the shelf with no buyer in sight. 2- Quickly

[boazklinghorn]

Dude youre quoting Peter Schiff who has been a bear and wrong everyday since the financial crisis of 2008. Anyone who listened to him missed the best decade ever. You may want to find a better guru.

[prophetoffactz]

I'm quoting him today. The world was on the deathbed of ~0/negative interest rates for over a decade. If the global economy had trouble jumping over a hurdle of ~0% for over a decade how is it going to jump over the sharp spike in rates to a current FED rate of 5.33% potentially heading to 7.00%? There is record debt. Loans eventually reset. COVID and Putin's war and the need to

[boazklinghorn]

Dont talk economics to me that you read on the internet, not interested.  So whats your pick genius?