RE:Revenue from doubling sales Awarded, my notes from Brents investor presentation from Q1 mostly match your numbers although Brent said the larger machines typically get between $2 M and $3M for GMP. With large scale doubling and small scale up 25% YoY I'm estimating $28 - 30M topline, and assuming 30% GM yielding about $8.4M for FY 22 if guidance is indeed met.
The fact that Brent is projecting 40% REV going to the cannabis segment could be a game changer for royalties. With that guidance I'm conservatively assuming at east 400 - 500kw worth of machines are sold into that segment in FY22. If these partners truly deploy this tech at scale, even just an 8 hour shift for 220 days a year will meaningfully impact royalties, possibly increasing by $1.5 - 2M a year (based on .01c per gram). The outlier on this is why did TLRY and ACB not utilize this technology after purchasing the machines? That is my only concern around the growth potential in this segment. The technology by all accounts offers a more pure and potent end product and solves for bottleneck issues and yet apparently was squandered by two of the biggest players in the industry. Why?
in terms of Nutradried, while I agree that they still have a lot to prove out after some significant stumbles, I like what I've heard in how they've pivoted to incorporate the B2B and co-mfg side. I think there's a lot more room there. My hope is this is the "last try" on the B2C channel. Keep it lean, with tight inventory controls and grow it methodically if demand compounds. If nutradried were to morph into a cleaner margin white label bulk and ingredient only segment that could be just as lucrative for the company I think. Although I'll admit that's not my wheelhouse but I realize the B2C side is way more cutthroat and involved than handing off tasty ingredients in bulk and letting other attuned and we'll capitalized players fight out that retail battle of store placement, branding strategies, and fickle customers, etc.