FDR: Padget upgrades his own stockAt least as far as concerns my resource / target price model. I’m still going to wait on the arrival of the first couple of assay batches from Donut / Eclaire drilling before doing a full overhaul of my calculations. Sounds like we should have a good set of samples before PDAC in early March.
But Colin Padget, in an excellent interview by Antonio linked yesterday on CEO.ca, just saved me a lot of work on a key variable.
I conservatively, and somewhat arbitrarily, estimated Cdn$75 as the price per ounce-in-ground an acquirer would pay for FDR. For a while I was trying to untangle the price per ounce Zijin paid for IAmGold’s Suriname property a few years ago as a check against my guess. But Padget has a couple of different comparables in mind.
And he ought to know the best comparables, I should think. His answer is good news for all us longs. His estimate of between USD$80 and $90 per o.i.g. is over 40% higher than mine.
So, leave aside the effects of my plusses and minuses for adjustments to grade estimates and nuanced specific gravity levels, and the effects of a larger Upper Antino resource due to possible new finds at Donut / Eclaire. Although those input changes will probably aggregate at least somewhat net positive to our cause.
Padget just inadvertently pushed my price target from Cdn$11.25 to at least Cdn$15.00. Yes, I realize he has probably never read any of my posts. And why would he? His own proprietary models are more accurate, and he’s got plenty of other work to do.
But he did also confirm Antino could contain *several* multi-million-ounce deposits. Making me much more comfortable with my overall resource approximation methodology.
Therefore, if anyone is still *naked* shorting FDR at this point (not merely pre-selling warrant shares) there are perhaps just two reasons. It is either a risky, aggressive attempt to flush out longs to future allow short covering for greater profit, or it is to simply allow successful net FDR accumulation by sophisticated new longs at the expense of those of us who’re already here.
Our response is easy: hang on to our shares. It is not like any one of us is facing FDR margin calls. We are not the short sellers. We’ve got the simpler path to walk.