Gabriel Resources Ltd V.GBU

Optimistic outlook

[gltainv]

The ICSID taking this long makes me believe the minimum payout will happen, no way you debate the case this long and don't go down the middle. The claimed amount is 6.7 bn usd, Romania wants 2, I believe the middle would be the most likely based on that, but who knows, solely considering the mine investment and possible profits had they been allowed to 'open up' shop on Rosia Montana. I'd say imo, that4-5 bn is not too unattainable, but that all depends.

[gltainv]

I'd say the most optimistic scenario is 9 billion CAD as a payout, 9 a share, but that's just something to keep in mind, it's very rare it goes to the full award. Based on potential profits on the reserves in the mine, plus the mine itself, 4-5 would be the fairest but who knows.

[Bulba212]

My base case scenario is that entire country of Romania will be given to Gabriel Resources through 100% control of the Prime Minister's office and Parliament which will be turned over to Gabriel's CEO and board of directors, respectively. My downside scenario is that Romania acquires Gabriel for $22 Billion in cash to extinguish any obligations it has in front of the ICSID. I'm

[TELEMARKER]

the chances of either are slim to none. Everyone should lower their expectations. from website P & P reserves are 10 million oz Au and 47 million oz Ag Au $100 /oz x 10 million oz = $1 billion Ag $6 / oz x 47 million oz = $300 million total  $1.3 billion

[gltainv]

They have 314 tons of gold, and about 1500 tons of silver I believe 

[TELEMARKER]

When majors buy deposit from juniors gold in the ground is valued at approx $100 / oz silver in the ground is valued at approx $6 / oz I suggest this would be the case for a settlement with GBU

[churchofnutsacc]

It's an unfair assumption to label Gabriel as only a junior that was only ever looking to sell. They would have been very capable of raising the capital needed to actually develop this mine and produce the metals if not for the Romanian government. Back of napkin math for their resources on say, $800 margin for gold and $12 margin for silver, minus a billion or so for development costs gets

[gltainv]

They have 314 tons of gold, and about 1500 tons of silver I believe@

[Bulba212]

How do you get $100 margin on gold?  Mine at AISC of $1200/oz and sell at $1300/oz ?  Seems totally unrealistic.

[TELEMARKER]

there have been many undeveloped gold deposits that majors have purchased. Trhere is a range of $ per oz or reserves that they have paid, many variables. Great Bear is one, MOZ Marathon bought by Calibre CXB recently

[urai58]

There are several ways to value a gold project. The "AISC method" is definitely insufficient - it gives a clue. On the one hand, the legal representatives argued with the NAV method (Net Asset Value). Because there are many costs, for example G&A, which were not reflected in the AISC costs.   However, the $100 per ounce reserves is a good approach. It roughly corresponds

[gltainv]

I think that's an accurate representation of what the damages would be, thanks for your input/knowledge