RE: RE: newsFor those that have not yet seen this article from the Globe and Mail on 08/25;
Wednesday, August 25, 2010 7:01 PM
Gold plays dominate Caldwell’s top picks
Shirley Won
What are we looking for?
What the pros are buying.
Checking the stocks they buy can be a source of tips for furtherresearch, or a way of gaining some insight into an investment fund.Today, we will look at the top 10 equity holdings in the CaldwellMeisels Canada Fund at caldwellinvestment.com.
More about the fund
The $3.3-million Canadian small to mid-cap equity fund has been run byBrendan Caldwell of Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. since late 2004.While the fund has focused on companies with a market value of morethan $500-million and opportunistic plays, it began a shift in strategyin June. Technical analyst Ron Meisels, president of Phases & CyclesInc., has been hired as a consultant for the fund, which istransitioning to focus on the 100 largest Canadian companies.
The fund gained 39.5 per cent for the year ended July 31 compared with38 per cent for the BMO Nesbitt Burns Canadian Small Cap Index, and 11.7per cent for the S&P/TSX Total Return Index. Over five years, thefund has an average annual return of 2.7 per cent versus 5.4 per centfor the smaller-cap index.
Mr. Caldwell said he believes the current secular bear market has fourmore years to run. This fall, however, a cyclical bull market willprobably take over for the next couple of years, he suggested. “You willsee the Canadian market outperform the vast majority of the rest of theworld led primarily by its commodity and hard assets. The sector onwhich we are most bullish is the gold sector.”
What did we find?
Plenty of gold stocks in the top 10 holdings – part of the old guard inthe portfolio. In fact, these metals stocks represent about 30 per centof the portfolio.
Mr. Caldwell is keeping his gold plays because he is still upbeat on a rising price for the yellow metal.
Osisko Mining Corp., a junior explorer which owns the Canadian Malarticgold deposit in Quebec, still has potential despite a very robust gainthis year, he said.
“It’s just opening the largest active gold mine in Canada,” he said. “Wesee a short-term target on it of $18 a share with any strength in thegold market, or with a takeover premium.”
Canadian National Railway Co. is part of the new guard of securitiesbeing purchased. Technical analysis suggests a “significant breakout”above $60 a share, and the stock could hit a target of $74 to $84, hesaid.
With its recent rise to a high of $16.50 a share, Trican Well ServiceLtd. also signalled the start of a new major leg up toward highertargets that could reach between $19 and $22 a share, he added.
| Top 10 equity holdings for Caldwell Meisels Canada Fund as of July 31, 2010 |
| Company |
Symbol |
Price as of
Aug. 24 ($) |
52-wk
high ($) |
52-wk
low ($) |
YTD price
chg (%) |
| Iamgold Corp. |
IMG-TSX |
18.64 |
21.95 |
12.31 |
12.9 |
| Ivanhoe Mines |
IVN-TSX |
17.24 |
19.12 |
9.31 |
11.15 |
| Alamos Gold |
AGI-TSX |
16.55 |
17.61 |
8.53 |
31.77 |
| Eldorado Gold |
ELD-TSX |
19.1 |
19.73 |
10.74 |
28.02 |
| Trican Well Service |
TCW-TSX |
14.5 |
16.5 |
10.05 |
3.13 |
| Osisko Mining |
OSK-TSX |
14.3 |
15 |
6.88 |
69.03 |
| Canadian National Railway |
CNR-TSX |
62.42 |
67.2 |
50.75 |
8.86 |
| Carpathian Gold |
CPN-TSX |
0.35 |
0.48 |
0.23 |
-5.41 |
| Donner Metals |
DON-TSX-V |
0.235 |
0.37 |
0.17 |
-9.62 |
| Gold Bullion Development |
GBB-TSX-V |
0.54 |
0.71 |
0.06 |
500 |
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