Greenbriar Valuation All ....
This is getting crazy!
I am here to help! Seriously help!
Firstly, the market price and the value of the company are not in sync at all, as we have not told the story to anyone. No one from the institutional world is following our landmark news release of the Planning Commission approval of "Entitlement". I have more things to execute and complete before the GRB load speaker starts blowing to the big world.
Oh, and BTW I bought 50,000 shares today at $1.70 per share (no including commission) in the open market. I just made the SEDI filing on this purchase a few moments ago.
But here is where I'll help.
The value of Sage Ranch can only be determined 2 ways.
1. The NPV method, which is simply the discounted value of the free cash to be generated by the project during its life. The formula has a little algerbra to it and I know the final number. The missing inputs that have not been addressed in this SH dialogue have been the discount rate and the GRB % of revenue and profits. I'll provide the two missing things here: (i) Provide a realistic discount rate of 6% PA; and GRB will always have 100% of the revenue and more than likely 75% of the net profits, because PWR does not have the funds to carry all the costs to earn its 50% net profits. The 75% is not hard, but realistic.
2. The second method is the P/E method. This simply is the appropriate P/E ratio for a developer, owner, builder and marketer of a fully vertical real estate public company. There are only 4 in the US and Canada that are fully vertical, including now GRB once construction starts. I'll give a P/E of 10 because this is the norm. The argument that GRB has only 4 to 7 years of maximum sales and therefore cannot support the P/E method is not true. First because we have a pipeline of another 750 units that we will announce in a short period of time, indicating 7 to 11 years of sales, clearly supporting the P/E method and secondly, no other public company, save and except a Yieldco has 5 years or so years of guaranteed sales. MFST, AMZN, GOOG, etc. do not. None have guaranteed sales. Once you get a 1,000 (995) unit project entitled, it is near rare that management cannot attract more projects to feed the pipeline.
Before I give my number I will launch in a week a global viral contest with a prize of $2,500 cash to any person that can give the true value of Sage Ranch as it relates to GRB based on all the metrics that are balck and white which is: Selling price per sq foot, (market price) costs per square foot, (factual 3rd party bids) Discount Rate (indusrty norm) Project build lifespan (4 to 7 years) Infrastructure and permit fees (City fees plus 3rd party contractors) etc, etc. I'll provide all the factual 3rd party inputs and the person in the world who shows the correct formulation based on science of mathematics, not conjecture or my number, wins.
My number undiscounted and pre-tax is USD $6.67 per share for GRB using the Net Present Value method. Once we add the further land acquisitions and then use the P/E method, that will change as well for the upside. For now, the viral competition will be for the Net Present Value Method only. When I give the 3rd party inputs for the competition, the participants will apply a 6% PA discount rate and an acceptable tax rate. We then add back our loss carry forwards. We are currently trading at USD $1.37. I will have CFA's and CPA's be part of the competition.
BTW I have no idea where the following share number or market cap of (36.91 + 36.88 = 73.79M US) came from a poster. He has double diluted the share value, cutting his value in half. It should be $4.20 under his correct math.
All for now!
Best
Jeff