Post by
RogersBulll on Feb 28, 2021 3:21pm
Q2 Thoughts
Doug has confirmed some quarters will be lumpy, but he thinks investors should focus more on the annual numbers for a true reflection of value. He said this in a recent YouTube video from Dec 18th I believe. OK, so we should all be well aware, based on the news flow that Q2 will most definitely not exceed the revs of Q1. Where am I going with this? I am focusing on the language in the releases. Doug always leads every quarter/annual result with:
"This is our 'X' consectuive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth"
So, that being said, do I think this quarter will be any different? NO. Q2 2020 was $3.6 mil in revenues, so I would expect that this quarter -Q2 2021, will be around $3.7-$4.1 million and this will result in a slight loss or break-even quarter. This will put us at a total of $8.7-$9.1 million in revs for Q1 and Q2. Based on the quote from last years Q2 "On average over the past five years, this first half period represented just 33% of our full fiscal year revenues."
I would like to think that this would hold true for 2021 as well. Meaning that if we take the low end of $8.7 million and take this as 35% of annual revenues, I work out to just below $25 mil for annual revs (25% annual growth). If I take the $9.1 and take it at 33% of annual revs, I get $27.5 million (Closer to 40% annual growth).
At the end of the day, I am INVESTED (not trading) in a profitable, scalable company with a solid management team that has serious skid in the game.
THE ONLY INVESTOR I CARE ABOUT IN TERMS OF SHARE COUNT, is DOUG DYMENT and now COLIN SUTHERLAND. Neither of them have sold, and in fact, Doug bought an additional 3 million shares less than twelve months ago and Colin has owned his 1.7 million for an unknown period of time. What I do know, he joined the board of directors as an idependent and seemingly for the purpose of increasing shareholder value for everyone and most importantly, HIMSELF.
I am a value investor, and I see a lot of it here. The fundamentals are solid. Any single NR in regards to M&A, a new financing, reocurring revs contract, transit authority, state-wide bus contract, swing-arm cameras, changes the value here tremendously. I am personally not going to try and time this event, I think it will happen soon IN MY OWN OPINION.
Would really like to hear the thoughts of others on this. GLTA
Comment by
Captain71 on Feb 28, 2021 4:41pm
Thanks RogersBulll. Nice to see estimates from another investor posted on the board. I can’t recall my actual Q2 estimate but I think it was around 5 million in revenue, slightly positive net income. More importantly my annual estimate is: Revenue 29.6 million, Gross profit 10.4 million, Net income 3.9 My estimates are a little higher than yours but pretty close. SP target $1.40. GLTA