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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Galway Resources Ltd V.GWY

TSXV:GWY - Post Discussion

Galway Resources Ltd > Galways True Value
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Post by SchiffKnowsBest on Apr 28, 2012 1:18pm

Galways True Value

Iamgold going after TRR should be one of many mining buyouts to come.  Senior golds are sitting on a lot of cash and the cost to acquire is becoming much cheaper than hunting for their own gold.  As more and more JRs get gulped up, this will lift the tide for all boats.

 

I of course believe Galway Resources will be one of many that get taken out this year.  Given the level of manipulation in our share price, it seems that not only is California up for grabs, but so are the rest of the assets.  If you want to argue and say this is forced selling by mutual funds then that is fine, it still doesn't lead to a true value for Galway within our share price.  For the record I don't think this is forced selling by mutual funds.  A robot has been on this stock for a few months now.  I used to work for a mutual fund company and when it's forced selling it is all at once because of redemptions.  You don't gradually draw down your holdings if that were the case. 

 

We must all understand the intrinsic value for Galway.  The share price no longer is relevant to our current value.  Call me all the names you want for saying that, but given all the comparisons currently, and going back, you do not get all that Galway has for $140mm given their high grade.

 

Under no circumstances should Galway be sold for anything less than:

 

-->  $200/ounce in the 43-101 at California, given what Ventena went for (over $400/inferred ounce), and given Galway holds significant pieces of land within Eike's claim that he needs unless he wants to build extra ramps, entrances, etc to his mine.  Multiply by 80%, given Galway only owns 80% of California.  Keep in mind gold is 20% higher now than when Ventana did their deal.

 

1,500,000 ounces (my estimate) * $200 * 80% = $240,000,000

 

--> $50mm for Vetas given their current drill results and their shared border with CBJ's glory hole that management believe they have a similar structure.  This is currently 1/3 of what CBJ is worth.

 

$50,000,000

 

--> Victorio and Galca.  Minimum $10,000,000 value.

 

$10,000,000

 

--> Cash $20,000,000

 

$20,000,000

 

Fully diluted shares of 144,274,676

 

Added cash from exercising of warrants and options (once above $1.50) = $25,315,391

 

$25,315,391

 

$240,000,000 + 50,000,000 + 10,000,000 + 20,000,000 + 25,315,391 = $345,315,391

 

$345,315,391 / 144,274,676 = $2.39

 

If we let Galway go for any less than this we should all quit investing!  If two or more parties come to the table, I see us getting more than that.

Comment by admantine69 on Apr 28, 2012 2:16pm
I agree with your evaluation. Excellent lowest case scenerio presuming 1.5million ounces. Although the pivotal unknown: How much more has this amount increased with all the undisclosed drilling that has been going on? Patience.
Comment by Geef on Apr 28, 2012 6:31pm
Great post Sciff.  It provides a good benchmark against which we can evaluate any offers when the #oz assessment is finally  announced.
Comment by $HAWK on Apr 28, 2012 10:26pm
I just read the 2.39 estimation of GWY, which is a gross under valued projection.  TRR was discussed friday on BNN takeover value @83.00  mainly because the thin veining of gold , 1 to 2 g/t while Gwy is 4 times g/t therefore 25% less digging to acheive the same amount of product and to date approximately the same amount of gold available go figure. There is no consideraation of the ...more  
Comment by SchiffKnowsBest on Apr 29, 2012 8:26am
Mislead people, really $hawk?  We're fighting the same battle here, don't forget that.
Comment by oldtimer42 on Apr 29, 2012 8:33am
I notice Tumazo's and Schiff's minimum numbers are both reasonably in line with beach other which is indicative of a sound rationale for both. If anything is out of line it is Tumazo's upper value. $2.96 to over $7 is quite a spread. I am happy with both rationale but keep in mind that Schiff has been very conservative on his projection for several months. Anything above his, or Tumazo ...more  
Comment by maglicc on Apr 30, 2012 2:39pm
Schiff just said what should be a floor to SP and not a real value of GWY. I totally agree but one thing worries me, we did ot bring price to $1 either, and not being able to control company I can just sit,  watch and hope that I am right about GWY.
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