Post by
Aarman4 on Dec 01, 2020 1:31pm
What to do, What to do!
Well, at this very time that I am typing HPQ Silicon sits at 0.74, an amazing jump of almost 40% today alone.
Being a (very) long term investor, I have very mixed feelings.
What should I make of this? What should I do about this?
Well, first and foremost, I have been buying shares in HPQ Silicon on and off for the last several months, feeling that they had a recent floor of about 0.50/share. It was November 30th yesterday, and December 1st today, so what has changed?
The company, along with it's CEO have been speaking about December being the big month for validation for quite some time. News came out early both fortifying those statements, as well as showing that HPQ might actually be ahead of schedule on things, which should produce optimism. The share prices stayed firm in and around 0.50/share. Pyrogenesis(the company which is entwined with HPQ silicon and HPQ nano by ownership, and agreements and intellectual property sharing) has recently moved up to the TSX away from the venture. That is sure to attract eyes to Pyrogenesis, which secondarily should also attract eyes to HPQ Silicon. However, since the uplisting of Pyrogenesis, thePYR shares have had small boosts, but many would argue that it has more to do with their actual business dealings regarding torch sales.
So what gives? Why the rise in HPQ Nano so far?
We still have no meaningful revenue/profit, and won't for the near future, so it must be something else.
I would predict(very likely wrongly) that we have any 1 of 3 potential scenarios going on here, and I will tell you what I will be doing in each scenario. (Yes, I know EV and Battery stocks are volatile everywhere right now, and thumbs up if we have the attention that puts us with them, but I just don't believe we are that recognized yet)
Scenario 1:
Short sellers getting out of the game prior to the upcoming news HPQ Silicon is expected to release, which may also reveal their customer's name. This is causing a drive upwards in share price.
Scenario 2:
Institutional/BIG investor buy-in is taking place. Somebody, somewhere, with a lot of clout, is buying in today all at once, driving the share price upwards. This could be in anticipation of upcoming news, or possibly through association or just bullish sentiment.
Scenario 3:
An increase in buyers and decrease in sellers taking place below 0.74(still there at this point), driven by the expected news that will validate HPQ Silicon is the "next shopify" of Canadian stocks.
Now, I definitely believe it is scenario 3, but in all honesty, to this long investor, it really doesn't matter which scenario it is, or even if it is a scenario I haven't thought of. In the end, HPQ Silicon is in the same position today as it was yesterday, despite the share price changes. What is it worth? We're at the upper end of my current buying comfort level, as I am looking forward still at least 24 months from now to buy against.
I am going to HOLD. I have a feeling that this price boost has been a major buy-in based upon hopes that an announcement will overcome the hurdels of showing real earnings growth. I am not going to say the company is overvalued, quite the contrary actually.
I will HOLD, and I feel, in December, there will be another chance to buy more in the sub 0.60 range when the reality that we have an AMAZING company, that still isn't showing regular, growing earnings to the world takes hold.
Now, if I was a "stock trader" as opposed to a "long investor", I would be selling right this moment, and then buying in after the News Release which I am excited about, but I also do not believe will have a large enough material impact on the current, and forseeable earnings numbers. I would be prepared to buy back in again in a few weeks to a month.
So as a LONG investor, I HOLD, I have some cash sitting at wait, and maybe none of my other holdings will demand it so soon, in which case I will definitely buy more below 0.60.
Sorry for the ramble,
Cheers to all!