RE:RE:emotional ENDGAMEAlbertan
Not disputing your argument, but as a former (old) PRB shareholder I often use it as an example to evaluate current gold companies such as ICG.
Both have quite a few similarities
- great management with good business sense;
- they seem to have a good sense for finding good deposits and persevere to drill, drill, and drill to prove up the RE. In the case of PRB it was something like 4Moz (at least 2Moz in the indicated category). For ICG it's about the same. The up-coming RE would get the indicated category in the same level. But, for ICG there are potential for additional deposits nearby, which is a big plus.
- PRB was sold for $526M without a mill. But G had the Dome facility in mind, they plan to truck the ore along Hwy 117 to the Milling Complex there. So, $0.5B could be used as a reference value, keeping in mind also the lower PoG at that time.
- All facilities and permitting are essentially availbable for ICG. Worth $$$$
- Val D'Or is a welll established mining town and is a better place to attract workers than Chapleau (de Jong has over 1000 applications for jobs). Besides, the company does not have to provide expensive on-site facilities for workers. Workers can have dinners when they get home in Val D'Or.
- PRB were taking about a ramp for bulk sampling, but did not have time to do it before the TO. On the other hand, ICG is about to complete the $26M ramp and will be ready to extract bulk samples in a few months. Goldcorp is currently doing the ramp and the Feasibility Study and pay for them.
- Permitting is a key area (shorter time to production). ICG seems to have most of it done and the rest will be completed shortly, and this aspect is de-risked (sometimes it's not the money, but the time required to do some EA related items that may delay the project for a long long time)
If all the above area thrown in the mix, then one could make a better guess for ICG by comparing to some previous experience like PRB. Right now my guess is $1B plus for ICG.
Sometimes, the SP behaviour could provide some clue about the future direction (or what would eventually come next) of the target company (e.g. the old PRB). If you watch the behaviour long (and carefully) enough you may be able to detect some pattern which may point to price manipulation in order to get the SP down before an offer. Yes, stock manipulation is real. So, if you believe that the company is built on a solid foundation then hang tight (or even buy more) when the SP is dropping (for no fundamental reasons). But again, you are rolling the dice. Sometimes, it works wonderfully, but sometimes it doesn't, lol. BTW, I rolled the dice for the old PRB and it produced very nice results.
May the force be with you with ICG dice.
GH