RE:DAM$ - your people need you! What's next?Hi everyone, I have been basically quiet because I still feel the sale is imminent and all we can do is wait for it. But as some seem to want to know what I think here are my thoughts. Pure speculation based on my reading and assumptions.
I appreciate the attitude that my opinion matters, as undeserved as that is, but I don’t disagree with Tuscany, as I felt I was being blamed or called out for being misleading on the 10M GEO’s but now Lambo’s 50M trumps my wildest dreams. (at least I don’t recall saying 50M out loud ). Someone get Mr. Bristow a glass of that Kool-Aid or just sneak it into the Barrick water cooler.
I feel the silence or lack of news is not necessarily bad but maybe promising in that I hope it means Cynthia is focusing on the buyout instead of the drilling and cores that she always shows pictures of and obviously she can’t show pictures of buyout negotiations.
I’m thinking Cynthia would rather spend time sailing the Caribbean or the Mediterranean on the yacht than suffering the -40 wind chills of a Beardmore winter (or a Toronto winter), and the blackflies of a Beardmore spring while she does the due diligence required to prove the strike zone . So I’m of the belief that she is working on the sale while the team (DRA, RMG, Mira & Blue Herron) plan the future exploration whether it is executed by LME or the buyer(s).
As many have stated, Roger says we won’t see any “proven” ounces until after the sale. To backup Roger’s statement on this, I emailed Cynthia back in November and she answered that - the Board and all the advisors said No to a NI 43-101. “The answer is quite simple why we do not think a NI 43-101 should be produced at this time. We have discovered from this year's drilling and exploration a new potential orogenic corridor, which hosts some drilling, mapping and very recent trench exposures.”
“Even with all the exploration and drilling work completed to date on the A-Zone to the McLeod Zone, there is still the depth and width extents not validated, and so much "blue sky" to be defined, explored, and developed, and thus we do not think it is in the interest of the shareholders or the company at this time to complete a NI 43-101, however we will continue to file the technical assessment reports with the full details of our exploration work and expenditures with the Ministry for all to access.”
She went on “You mention a buyout. A savvy buyer has a technical team of their own expertise and geologists that can as easily dump our technical database in their software equivalent and get the answers they want. That is the great benefit of an extensive digitized 3d model and database. This is true transparency at work, and during a buyout when due diligence is being completed, a potential buyer has unfettered access to the project, an all our data rooms.”
So my take is there’s no need to announce a report of Proven resources, that any buyer will perform for themselves anyway, just to boost the market value. The only reason that they would need the share price higher is if they needed cash and planned a private placement. They don’t need the cash as they have enough to fund another two years of drilling at the 2022 pace. Any senior mining company, with the resources to buy LME, has people who are aware of them and are calculating their own numbers every time the assays are released. My only fear is that whatever they are being offered isn’t enough to outweigh the urge to explore the new orogenic corridor and prove everything.
As for the comparison between GBR and LME, the significant thing I noticed was the Cut-off grade for the open pit in their NI43-101
“Open pit Mineral Resources are estimated at a cut-off grade of 0.5 g/t Au.”
Check the LME assays reported where people complained of our low g/t. Makes one rethink low grades especially when combined with silver, zinc & copper.
Quote from Roger’s FB post back in January, “With Cynthia not being available” (to co-captain the boat) ”because of her primary focus being fast-tracking/moving LAURION to the next level/development stage for maximum shareholder value…”
So while we patiently (some more patiently than others) wait for the buyout payday; I’ve been quietly pondering; What will constitute development stage that will give us max value? What’s the thing or things that need completing before the sale for maximum value? That can be completed in 1-3 months so that the deal can be announced and completed 3 months later so Cynthia can join Roger in BC when he finishes his sail from the Bahamas in August??
-DRA presenting a Scope Study in some form showing cost of mining Ishkoday? Although it is said to be for the stockpile, the cost may be an indication of the overall mining costs and therefore the profitability of mining. I also think the stockpile is really of low significance. It’s $20m compared to the $5B+ buyout.
-Getting approval to open the mineshafts?
-Finishing the more detailed presentation on "The Ishkoday Story" with re-logging efforts fed into the evolving three-dimensional deposit model?
Or do they just need to agree on the final price??
All of these? More things I’m missing?
To answer your question, ‘What do I expect’;
-A detailed presentation on "The Ishkoday Story" (probably imminent considering Coming Soon page) Hopefully with something in it to get excited about or at least feed our desires for news
-Minor news releases seemingly unimportant but that are required or will help close the deal
-Possibly a drilling plan but I hope the sale is announced before that happens
Though I do not doubt the shares may dip into the 30s which I have cash waiting for. I only see a sale this year. And Cynthia and Roger on a long sail.
Cheers all