RE:M&A Discussion Happening Down the RoadHey ahsineeg, I am watching this closely as well
Backgound
January 2021 Orion Mine Finance (OMF) paid 285 million USD for a 50% interest in the Greenstone Goldmine. - Valuation: 570 Million.
April 2021 (three months later) OMF sold a 10% stake back to Equinox for 60 million (cash and consideration). A 110% increase on the original valuation. Valuation 600 Million.
2024 - Orion sells the remaining 40% of there stake for 1B+ USD.
I think there will be a bidding war. Equinox would like to buy it but they don't have the money, but they may bring in their own partner. Barrick I assume would have to be interested, as would any other major producer. It's a producing mine, just as gold is hitting new highs in an area of low volatitiliy. This is one to watch kids.
So what took the Greenstone from 600M - 2.5B+ in three years. Drilling. lots of it. And permitting. Oh and another thing...building the mine.
Comparing the Ishkoday to the Greenstone now is giving no value to the money and labor that was spent to get there. And it was ~1.5 billion.
By 2021, the Greenstone had a 43-101 MRE to justify it's valuation,but in an inflated market, like the one we are on maybe a Property of Merit and good data is enough, however I would put a ceiling on that of 600M USD, or $2.24/share. I don't that is likely.
Orion Mine Finance is going to reinvest their money. Rinse and reapeat.
Following the same Let's say they agree to buy 50% of the Ishkoday for $250 million. Orion and Laurion form a company that buys Laurion and existing shareholders get shares in the new company on a 1:1.
I think the shares in the new company would have some volatitily but settle in the 1.50-2.00 range.
In three years with the injection of cash could it be valued at 2B+ (depending on drilling), with a float somewhere in 400 million shares or $5+/per share Depending on the market it could be more.
I know Doug said it was a sale that was being negotiated, but I think an acquisition by a new company formed by Laurion and OMF would technically count.
Okay. Here comes the backlash.