Post by
nozzpack on Feb 23, 2023 7:02pm
Proxy Based Fair Value of Murchison Project
Let's take a quick look at what it might be.
First, let's assume it will be its current book value based on costs.
Current Book value of Murchison is $32 million US which is about $40+ million CAD.
I recall this was close to the deal that was contemplated with WestGold several years ago, before ODY deal.
Now, a more relevant market cap analyses.
We will use ODY market cap as an excellent proxy.
Current market cap of ODY is $ 25 m AUD = $ $23.5 million CAD.
Remove from this the value of Stakewell which was acquired for $2,5 million, and has not been touched since its acquisition .
So, we have a net market cap of about $ 21 cad million for ODY's 80% ownership of Tuckanara .
Turkie has a JORC resource level of 81,000 ounces which will be converted by current drilling to 43-101 standards and in all likelihood increase signifucantky when all is said and done.
Burnakura has 381,000 ounces already in 43-101 categories which makes those ounces statistically more certain than JORC standards.
Nevertheless, accepting equivalence of the historical and current resource estimation models , Burnie should be valued at about 4.7 times ( 381/81) $ 21 million which is about $ $93 CAD.
Throw in the fully operational 260,000 tpa mill and 110 man mining camp at $ 6. 5 million and add 20% of ODY market cap = $5 million and Burnie is worth about $ $105 million.
Then we have Gabanintha with JORC of 153,000 ounces which is about double that of Turkie.
However, ODY has done quite a bit of drilling of Turkie but only modest amounts of Gabbie has been drilled by Monument .
So, arbitrarily , I use $7.5 m for the Gabbie asset .
This brings the total value of our Murchison assets to over $ 112 million CAD.
Sounds unbelievably like a lot but it is based on a real and very comparable gold asset in ODYs transformation of Turnakura from zero shareholder value into a very exciting project......