RE: Fun and games around here it seems.... Blindbat,
The July figures were for OIP, as it noted in the title of the NR. The total oil that is there. The latest figures move those figures to resources (2C), as the oil that is RECOVERABLE, ie; that we can get out of the ground. Based on a recovery factor, in this case around 23%. The figures are based on a vertical well and are prudent because it does not consider the appplication of EOR (recovery factors for oil fields around the world typically range between 10%-60% percent).
Next we will see a development plan, permitting and to allow a move of some resources (2C) to reserves (2P). Then i hope to see drilling of TSB-3 before any sale, as Mr More explained in the July NR the limitations to the data from TSB-1 and the upside from TSB-3. Further increases are highly likely in the un-tested reservoirs, which will hopefully be addressed by TSB-3. TSB-3 will also be in a more optimal location based on the 2008 re-processed of 3D to PDSM, versus the 1980 Shell location of TSB-1.
Hope this helps.