Mira Resources Corp V.MRP

Nervous

[WeKnowEnergy]

Cant help but question management, since what they have stated publicly and to shareholders does not match what is actually happening.  So far they have failed to deliver, I dont think anyone could argue that.

Since there are 50 million warrants at 40 cents, I would imagine they are really gunning to get those warrants excercised. In fact, it could be vital to the company's survival. They failed to cross the 40 mark so far and viola, we get an unexpected delay in updating the reserves...

I read their old news releases, they expected to have the resource update inclusive of TSB redrill by January no problem.  The delay is one thing but the fact that they discluded TSB from the annual filing is very disturbing to me given what they had already stated and the fact that it was completed early December 2011.

I guess time will tell but I am cutting my position in half in the meantime as I have seen these games one too many times.  Its show me time and the burden is with management to prove themselves, so far we have nothing but more uncertainty in a very ugly market.

[BlindBat_1]

Cant help but question management, since what they have stated publicly and to shareholders does not match what is actually happening.  So far they have failed to deliver, I dont think anyone could argue that. Since there are 50 million warrants at 40 cents, I would imagine they are really gunning to get those warrants excercised. In fact, it could be vital to the company's survival

[WeKnowEnergy]

I share your valid concerns BlindBat, although I hate to admit it as I had bought in to the story and had high hopes.  Contradictory statements and moving timelines such as this have never in my experience led to a good outcome.  As they say, good news travels by jet liner, bad news by horse and buggy.  This is much slower than horse and buggy!

[BlindBat_1]

This end not quite sure what to think, but given I am in Mart and familiar with the Nigerian plays - I'd hate to dump a good potential based on a delay. As for the communications, if you've live through Wade Cherwayko's communication skills or lack there of, and you consider that Cavanah was with Wade in a previous life, one might be wise to be patient. Still does not change the fact

[amen11]

Biggest problem with this whole delay is all of us ( collectively ) keep pestering the office for a time line when it is completely out of their hands as to when this report will be done.  This is Africa...delays are part of life there and I for one am fine with the process....they have financed, redrilled and evaluated this field ( news release of improved zone sizes) all within

[photoman]

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[Mlachake]

Patience is required, Developing a field takes years and i agree they are moving quite fast compared with other juniors. I appreciate the update today as it explains to shareholders why a reports on the reentry is not out yet. The management has to communicate to eliminate doughts from growing among those who have choosen to go long. I do not beleive people should come on the board and call them

[fracpack]

u guys are very generous with the excuse you give to management.  you speak as though RPS office is in nigeria with african employees.  delays in africa are because of the government hurdles not because you have to interpret a seismic piece of paper from there. there is no excuse for this unexpected delays, and this latest one takes the cake.  in december they said they completed

[viopharmacell]

Agree, just one comment - their interests at the moment are aligned with ours - so we sit tight. It is a circus  I know, and I don't like it, it smells, but I will hold my nose and keep my shares .

[TeTsuo36]

If the report was finished RPS would have released it to MRP and MRP would have released it to the market. Whether it is RPS having too much work on, the 51 being more complicated than expecte i do not pretend to know. Whilst i am unhappy about the over-run, it is hardly a new concept when dealing with junior companies. If they had the report they would release it and if positive 

[fracpack]

they are paying for the report, if they were not happy with the result, they would try to include more in to the report, that would take longer.  if the report isnt good, then they have a better chance of moving the stock price on promotion dont you think?

[GloriousWanda]

My numbers do not come from the company, foolish to use those. I get my numbers from intitutional investors who have a small part of their fund in Mira. They are much more likely to give me a 'true' number. They are not afraid to tell it like it is.   I have a range of 20c - 80c based on execution and results. When the numbers are released I will plug into my model and make my

[WeKnowEnergy]

Wanda, Respectfully your 20 - 80 cent range is ridiculous.  Any idiot can predict the stock will end up between negative -50% and 275% plus. LOL. Your "model" is nothing more than a wet dream. There are 50 million warrants OS at .40. that is 33% dilution of the entire company beyond that point.  It is my biggest single concern so I share it with these guys.  I seriously

[photoman]

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[GloriousWanda]

I have over 240 million shares counting shares, options, warrants and wet dreams. I count them all. I use conigent resources, prospective resources, working interest, potential production (4000Bbl/d) etc. I also run a unrisked WI potential value for TSB, U7 and U9 and potentially others, I weight them accordingly and come up with a number after assuming my Brent crude prices. I run one on

[photoman]

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[GloriousWanda]

I have seen an analyst in the past use a value of $529 million, so yes thats a reasonable assumption based on numbers you suggest. You must decide whats the $/Bbl if you are using reserves. I use a more conservative number than most. I am not suggesting thats the case but your calculation is correct. Others may value it differently and come up with a different share price.

[mazinga]

$8 is my number what's yours GW?

[GloriousWanda]

guess im not most conservative. I use $10/Bbl

[TeTsuo36]

Sorry, probably not a well known saying in Canada! 1. Softly, Softly, Catchee Monkey 12 up, 4 down An old English proverb founded by a boy scout, meaning: "Don't flurry; patience gains the day". (Basically meaning be patient.) Mr Man: When is the bus coming?! It's been ages, and I need it here

[amen11]

proximity to pipeline ( approx 10 km)...shallow water,  close shore and to other production .  Analyst give it 10 bucks per

[fracpack]

  "The Company had no reserves as at December 31, 2011, the end of the Company’s most recently completed financial year." Wanda you are making a large mistake again assigning $10bbl to the company's potential resource. You said yourself you take the "reserves" and multiply by a dollar amount per barrel.  They have no

[fracpack]

  Wanda you are making a large mistake again assigning $10bbl to the company's potential resource. You said yourself you take the "reserves" and multiply by a dollar amount per barrel.  They have no recoverable reserve only estimate of oil somewhere down there with no commerciality. Imagine if people will pay $10 a barrel for that. We would all be rich. Your

[GloriousWanda]

Yes you are correct I used wrong word a few posts ago.  Its potential for sure I take no assumtion these are unrisked at this time. I made a phone call last night, and I think you are right. I think my $10 is high. I don't look at miners enough and have probably used a bad number for my in Situ value. The variable for mining costs can be very different for any company, hence you may

[investpro2]

Currently the TSB Field has over 100 Million Contingent Resources in 1C/2C/3C oil. There is  value for contingent reserves but it is in the low single digits $ per barrel and variable on location etc.  The very important significance of the upcoming News is that we will switch from contingent resources to Reserve status, 1P/2P/3P which adds very signficant greater value, I have

[investpro2]

I am very confident based on Tom Shank Re-entry in Dec that the TSB will switch its 100 M 1/2/3C oil resources to a mix of over 100 Million barrels of 1/2/3P Oil Reserves.  Note that the re-entry of TSB #1 tripled the net oil pay zone from what was expected so the 1C 8 M resources will become at least 3 times to 1/2P 32 Million Reserves or greater.  So we have a field that should have 1

[investpro2]

MRP has a 54% net profit interest in TSB field so is $311 M divided by FD shares of approx 220 M we have a sp possibly as high as $1.40.  Conservatively, I believe $1 range is fair, double/triple from here.  The Nigerian Govt is about to begin a marginal field licensing round, bidders who do not get their area have an option of buying out MRP in addition to the already 2 suitors. 

[Mlachake]

I think your discussion here is quite accurate and not optimistic. We should see the bids north of a buck when all is said and done. More is there is any counterbids, hope first capital got a few others interested. Gl to all.

[photoman]

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[investpro2]

different choices to raise $25M: MRP has sufficient money in warrants 60 M warrants at .40 would give MRP the money MRP partners Equinox loan MRP the MRP portion raise the money pp or debt take the price from the pending takeover offer, ie, subtract $25M from the takeover bid instead of $1.40 sp it is approx $1.25 or so (.20 per share x 220 M FD approx) bottom line, imo, 1/2/3 P 100

[photoman]

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[Mlachake]

Photoman, you need to compare apples to apples, I mean compare Mira to its neigbours and not AOI. Have you seen the size of the blocks that AOI has 50% claims to and the success rate of their partners Tullow? These guys have taken prime blocks in Kenya and Ethiopia and then partnered with what is probably the best team of geologists in business today, Tullow. But enough of AOI here. I just

[photoman]

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[investpro2]

$25M is MRP cost share, MRP partners have to pay the balance, approx 50% each, so total I believe IMO is $50M for the entire field. The report has taken extra long I was told because they wanted to make sure all data was inputed including from adjacent similar fields to get max number of Million of Barrels into the final numbers.

[dhpar]

The report has taken extra long I was told because they wanted to make sure all data was inputed including from adjacent similar fields to get max number of Million of Barrels into the final numbers. ********************************************************************************************   well this certainly is beyond funny...:)

[investpro2]

dhpar, sorry that we are not all as smart as you are

[dhpar]

you don't have to appologize...i am used to that!

[TeTsuo36]

ha ha ha, from your mum and sisters that is ha ha ha

[mazinga]

9mm bbl x 54% = 4.86 mm x 280% increase = 13.608 mm bbl x $10 = 136.080 mm / 240mm = .567 / share Any comments?

[investpro2]

good how about the 3P barrels? there is value for 3P reserves

[investpro2]

good how about the 3P barrels? there is value for 3P reserves

[investpro2]

Original 9 mm bbl 1/2C TSB re-entry increases pay zone of 280 % over the original 9 mm bbl or original net pay 9 mm bbl original + (re-entry of TSB #1) (9 mm bbl + 9 mm bbl + 7.2 mm bbl) = 34.2 mm bbl 34.2 mm bbl x 54% = 18.46 mm bbl 2P net to MRP 18.46 mm bbl x $10 = $184.6 M to MRP (how about value for the 3P?) Divided by 240 FD ( i thought 220 FD) but lets use your number = .76 MRP share

[Mlachake]

I do not dispute the way this numbers are presented and I understand the assumptions being made here, but we should remember that the 9mml was obtained from a skin damaged reservior, so while the payzone increased by 280%-300%. The  1P figure you guys are using should also be revised upwards. Adjusting the flowrates to account for skin damage will show increase in

[mazinga]

Ok so no one disagrees that my number should be any lower than the bare minimum floor (or basement) number at .60 (FD 220mm) which is 70% up from the current .35 SP. Any basher on board like to comment?

[investpro2]

Mlachake, I thought your post was great and really knowledgeable, you know your stuff, I am glad you are here, good luck, mid-May ie 15 May, only one more trading week if it doesnt happen next week, I remain optimistic, the reserve numbers will be important imo, and TSB re-entry in Dec was key for me along with the insider buying and loan transfer to equity, cheers

[investpro2]

I remain very optimistic, see below from end April posted MRP sedar MDA: MRP has the preliminary Reserve Update and will be significantly larger Progressing towards drilling/production in Q4 2012, export in Q1 2013, speculation on my part of 4000-6000 bopd from TSB #1 alone In Feb 2012, MRP received SEVERAL expressions of interest Either we get bought out soon or we are producing up to

[Mlachake]

There is no dought in my mind that we are going to see a very good valuation either way come end May. We could also be in for a surprise if this guys get more marginal fields allocated to Mira.

[fracpack]

Mazinga, not a basher but I know reality, the takeover guarantees being issued to anyone within earshot by the CEO and investment relation staff are getting old.  They want the warrant at 40 cent excersised so they wont run out of cash.  So they keep to delay the report and pump pump pump.  Sad to see how many people bought into it, when something is that widely accepted by the

[investpro2]

okay, but CEO has been buying consistently ....not just retail, also insider have converted loan to an increased equity stake...neither of these points are in your post but are factual

[Mlachake]

Fracpack you need not start by telling us you are not a basher, your post is clear and I cannot treat this to be genuine concern. You are in the same category of those who called this management conmen because you are claiming that they are pumping and dumping. You talk of people selling at a profit. Show me any insider sell since the reentry? None only massive buys, Options issued to insiders

[fracpack]

M Latka, I fear you emotion is guiding your investment.  What is the point for me to bash. I do not own share Im just a  investor from europe that invest in international energy companies. I have seen this situation before many times. You wld have us believe that insider are filling there boot with shares at these high prices, but they bought alot up to 20 cent and a tiny amount above

[Mlachake]

Fair and square Mr Frac, If you look at the post I had when this options were issued, You will see that I was one of the people who questioned when the debentures were converted at those prices. I was not happy but there was nothing to go with than the SP and raising money by dilution would have been worse. But anybody using their money to finance the company would expect to be rewarded, and I am