Weekend Morning ThoughtsGood morning all.
I've been following and watching this company for a few months as a new investor and I have some thoughts that I have been pondering.
- The acquired business hiccupped last quarter with the loss of a bigger customer. Despite this, their DEM revenue was flat QoQ telling me they recouped the loss of revenue from this customer throughout the quarter or subsequent to it.
- They expect meaningful growth in the latter half of the fiscal year. Announcements (partnerships and customer wins) leading into the second half of the year should become more significant if the latter half growth comment is true.
- Sentiment here and elsewhere is poor. Stocks of smaller companies I follow and invest in are drifting. These are the dog days of summer. While larger companies stocks are doing well, smaller ones are all suffering, not just MTLO. Stocks drifting doesn't necessiarily mean the business is suffering and could be opportunistic.
- Terry Matthews owns roughly 15% of the company and is worth over $1 billion USD. I am especially concerned of the risk of him personally privatizing the company with or without financial partners. The valuation is especially low roughly at 2 times trailing revenue for a high margin, high recurring sales, growing software company.
- The sum of the parts is much greater than the whole. DEM did $1.84mm last quarter, annualized $7.34mm. This should be valued at 10x or $73.4mm. MPA did $1.925mm last quarter, annualized $7.70. This should be valued around 2-3x or $15.4mm-23.1mm. The legacy business is worth 0x. Using 303mm shares outstanding and the lower end of MPA range, this should be worth $0.29 today on a sum of the parts. Keep in mind the company said in a news release early this year they expect MPA to grow single digits and recently said DEM to really start growing in the second half of the fiscal year.
- I would like to see insiders step up and buy stock in the market as another writer on this board commented. When stocks are drifting away from fundamentals, it is up to insiders and management to reaffirm conviction. The market notices this and hopefully others follow insiders lead. Buying in the market sends a different bolder message than buying part of a financing.
- Frustration must be at an all-time high internally. Think of how pessimistic the comments on this board are. One can only imagine what is being discussed internally at Martello. The CEO must have his feet to the fire. Terry Matthews said few months ago in a video that he is pleased at the direction of the company however no one likes losing money even if just a paper loss. Despite a few short-term runs in the share price since listing, the stock has been on a perpetual decline. This must be frustrating the bigger shareholders internally and externally who have held on.
- Catalytic change is likely coming in my opinion. Whatever form this may come in, I think no one is happy with the status quo and something will give.
- I am fine to hold what I own. I think the stock is deeply undervalued based on my above thoughts and happy to hold what I own. If I see the second half growth or larger announcements prior to the second half of the fiscal year, or also insider buying, I would add to what I hold already.
I would like to hear what others on this board think, based on my above comments. Please be respectful. Lately this board has turned very sour and unprofessional. Good day all.