A little reality check.There’s too much bull/bear posturing on this board right now to suit me so I decided to pitch in with my sense of what’s really going on and where we really are right now.
- NFG traded down from it’s highs over the last few months because it was overbought.
- NFG bottomed and was trending back up when the assay discrepancy issue popped up and brought it back down.
- The assay issue resolved in the minds of most investors so the stock stabilized pending new results from the new process and pending some final resolution to the assay discrepancy issue.
- Gold got hit hard from $1850 and this contributed to NFG working toward the low end of its $5.70 -$6.20 bottoming range.
- Gold is now getting hit hard on the make-believe concern that the FED is going to taper to zero quicker than expected and raise rates sooner than expected.
- Since the concern arose over expedited FED hawkishness, NFG has traded in tandem with all gold stocks. Look at them. Right now NFGC is down 2.38% on the day. Franco Nevada is down 2.02%.
- The gloom and doom talk is nonsense. NFG is the same company it has always been. That said, my cost basis is $6.27. I wish I has waited.
- The $20 by whenever talk isn’t quite as nonsensical, but it is impossible to predict timing. Too much depends on the price of gold in the short term.
- It can be argued that NFG is a gift here. I wouldn’t’ disagree. But the same can be said of many miners right now.
- If $1760 gold doesn’t hold, the pain isn’t over yet.
All that being said, these are the times when investors who have done their due diligence and have an understanding of the macro effects in play, simply wait, confident that their thesis as to the big picture is right. My thesis is that the FED can’t taper to zero or raise rates significantly without casting the economy into oblivion. I think the FED knows it and has no intention of doing anything of the sort. It’s time to wait and, if you have dry powder for a liquidation/sell-off buying opportunity, be at the ready to deploy it.