New Found Gold Corp V.NFG

Gram-Meters Intermine Prediction Success ..20 out of 20

[nozzpack]

Just  to show  how well the  FS ounces of gold per meter drilled of orogenic mines predicts the FS outcomes of other orogenic gold mines.

The ratiomnale for this simple predictive model has already been explained ...massive sampling by a common sampling tool ( drills )  of a contained volume ( Gold deposit ) whose absolute gold abundance and grade are the statistical outcomes .

As can be observed in the Table below, within normal sampling variance , 20 out of 20 FS outcomes ( contained gold ounces ) were consistently predicted by other deposit FS outcomes adjusted ( obviously )  for grade differentials .

The basic FS specific drilling and other statistics are available in an earlier post of mine for reference.

As prreviously explained ,Detour Lake Grades between the three pits have large variations whose mean is not weighted by meters drilled and under estimated ..hence the larger variance from the mean.

Regardless, accepting DL , mean prediction outcomes were less than 20 % different from Observed FS outcomes and less than 10 % when DLake is removed .
So, the simple model works quite well in ball parking with acceptable prediction error FS outcomes of other orogenic gold deposits .

This simple model also consistently predicts that QWN 7 prospects have in excess of 20 million ounces of high grade gold averaging 11 grams per ton , based on very substantial drilling intensity.

These QWN7 are under estimated with respect to meters drilled.

The reason is that FS drillings include infill drilling within the deposit and also definition drilling within the deposit .

QWN includes only exploration drilling which has much less drilled density than FS drilled deposits .

But, infill and definition drilling is planned for QWN7 above 300 m , so the number of meters drilled for each of those will increase , increasing their predicted ounces .

Grade is the other contributing predictive parameter  for QWN7.

Estimates of these grades have been obtained from the 2024 QWN Technical report along with their sampling rates .

I have accepted these as being representative of mean grade ( 11 grams per ton ) for these QWN7 deposits .

In the FS study, infill and definition drilling will add to these grade estimates , definition drilling adding sampling rate but unlikely to alter the mean, and infill adding new grades between drill holes whose distance apart are considered unrepresentative of Reserves sampling rates.

Infill could add or remove grades of lesser or greater grade .
I assume random error  .

For my investment derisking I divide the mean estimate by 2  which, for QWN7 shallow deposits  would be still over 10 million ounces above 300 m .

@ 300,000 ounces per year, Combined mine life of these QW& pits would still be over 30 years.........few other FS can come closxe to this .

AIMHO
GLTA

Orogenic Proxy	Valentine Lake Predicted	Goldboro Predicted	Lynne Lake Predicted	Fosterville Predicted	Detour Lake Predicted	QWN 7 Prospects Predicted
	M . Oz	M Oz	M Oz	M Oz	M Oz	M Oz
Valentine Lake	NA	3.1	2.3	4.2	11.4	24.4
Goldboro	4.8	NA	2.3	4.1	11.0	23.7
Lynne Lake	4.8	3.6	NA	5.1	13.9	30.3
Fostervile	5.0	3.1	3.1	NA	11.2	24.2
Detour lake	7.1	4.4	3.3	5.9	NA	33
Mean Estimate	5.4	3.6	2.8	4.8	12.0	27.1
FS M ounces	5.1	3.1	2.8	4.1	15.8	NA
Predicted  Variance	6%	16%	0%	17%	-18%
Predicted  Variance  EX Detour Lake	-4%	7%	-7%	10%

[nozzpack]

I am surprised that no one seems to accept the validity and accuracy of my QWN estimates of contained ounces above 300 meters of depth, based on ounces per meter drilled extrapolated from 4 other Orogenic deposit ounces estimated in  FS . 20 out of 20 estimates were near spot on which is an extraordinary prediction  success rate. Using this simple model, QWN shallow prospects are

[Fredo51545]

Total ounces means nothing, Africa has 500 million ounces (made up number). So? Only mineable ounces have value. Only the gold inside an economic pit envelope has any real value. Until management shows us that, the stock will not respond to additional exploratory drilling financed with constant dilutive equity raises. Heck, this stock does not even respond to the rising gold price.