Procrastinate and the decision may be made for you..........A little over a week ago on Saturday July 25
th there was some grumbling about the share price being higher a year ago. Since I have been holding NSP for at least a year and a half that statement got me asking myself questions so I checked the “Price History” on Stockhouse, interestingly enough the share price closed on July 24
th 2014 @ .32 and it also closed @ .32 on July 24
th 2015. So jackherer’s statement
“so, obviously there is no progression in sp, unfortunately” was technically correct.
| Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Close |
Volume |
Chg |
% Chg |
Adj. Close |
Trade Val |
# Trades |
| 07/24/15 |
0.335 |
0.36 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
163,800 |
-0.03 |
-8.57% |
0.32 |
53.09k |
26 |
| 07/24/14 |
0.33 |
0.33 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
54,500 |
0.00 |
0.00% |
0.32 |
17.75k |
10 |
So
IF a person bought shares a year ago and
did nothing but hold them then they are actually down a cent due to inflation (if I don’t say it someone will make an issue out of it).
****
At the time I was doing the above I kept hearing a nagging voice and I am sure it was divot111 talking about one of his favorite topics – share dilution. So how was this dilution affecting the share price? In a perfect world I would use the outstanding share totals for July 24
th for 2014 & 2015 in my calculation. It’s not a perfect world so I
arbitrarily used the verifiable numbers from the March 31
st statements. Weighted average number of common shares outstanding 2015 - 47,613,537 2014 - 28,857,307 so using the issuance of shares during that period
as a guide I figure that the .32 share had been diluted to ~ 61% of its value or .21. Shouldn’t the share price be .21? For sure IF the company itself hadn’t progressed during the year it might be .21 or even less. So with all the share dilution the .32 shares from a year ago appear to have held their value, “the market” was still valuing the shares at .32 – how so?
****
One question usually leads to two more. Did the company just progress enough during the year to offset my “quick and dirty” diluted share price of .21? It would appear that the market thought so! I decided I should make a list of all the things that have changed/improved during the year but it’s easier to use the company’s list of milestones from page 4 of its
Investor presentation.
JULY 2014 NSP USA Subsidiary Established in Colorado
JULY 2014 Initial Production Run of HempOmega® Received
SEPTEMBER 2014 Unprecedented Omega Egg Study Results
OCTOBER 2014 Water-Soluble Cannabinoid Global Patent License Secured
NOVEMBER 2014 NSP USA Secures Agreement to License Hemp and Cannabinoid Extraction and Formulation
JANUARY 2015 Alliance with Nature's Health Products Canada Corp.; Contract with Alberta's Food Science Technology Centre to Assist in Developing Pet Food Line
FEBRUARY 2015 NSP USA Licenses Hemp and Cannabinoid Extraction and Formulation; Naturally Splendid Closes $1,847,132 Financing; PawsitiveFX Pet Care Line Launched
APRIL 2015 Industrial Hemp Supply Secured Through 2016
MAY 2015 Bulk Ingredients Division (BCI) Launched; PawsitiveFX Wins Best New Product Award, $1.6 Million Tranche Closed
JUNE 2015 P0S 51% Acquisition Closed; Exclusive Swiss Distribution for Hemp-Derived Products Signed
****
OK, reading the list made me feel a bit better now that I could see the progression the company had made during the year but I had to ask myself ....if I paid .32 a share a year ago and the company has made all the above progress then isn’t a share worth at least .32 now a year later -
shouldn’t it be worth a lot more now? That question and a few other questions have been on my mind since my
Rodney Dangerfield “no respect” post two weeks ago and that is why jack herer’s post got me trying to answer my own questions.
****
Decisions, decisions! I was starting to wonder if I should just sell my core NSP holdings, find other opportunities for the funds, and just continue to trade NSP each time the opportunity exists. Trouble is I had just posted about Grenadier getting conditional approval for the Laguna deal and I bought more shares as a roll of the dice that the deal would get done. So as a true procrastinator I did nothing and it was great to see the share price pop a little to .38 this past week on the progress of the Laguna deal. The problem is that the bids and asks are pretty thin and as can be seen today it doesn’t take much to move the share price either way so it could just as easily get back to .32 as go over .40. Geez, a little tougher decision now that those long held .32 shares from a year ago are showing a paper profit. Must be even tougher now for “johncontractor” to decide when he is
“gonna drop $100,000 in as soon as it hits my target price”.
****
“Living in the sunshine”
Always DYODD
DKM