RE:Anyone do any forecast models of CCW?Hi Cat Herder. The question that needs to be answered is the effect that the relationship with GGM will have on the price of shares. Frank has confirmed that GGM will borrow the money to have a mill built on the CCW mine site. They have a tentative agreement on milling but given that Frank controls both companies we don't know how much each company could make from each other. My guess is that Frank will attempt to have both companies trading over $1 but this could hamper CCW or vice versa.
thecatherder wrote: I'm using 3 mine production scenarios: 200T/day, 400T/day, and 800T/day
as well as 2% cobalt (vs. the 4-5% they report) and a $10 per lb. all-in mining/crusher/roaster/etc. cost....and another $5 deduction for misc. or further cobalt price drops.
So, taking $20-25 lb. profit margin yields earnings per share on almost 90 million fully diluted shares of ____? I can get to a low of $0.75/share and a high based on the above of $2++/share. So, maybe the company someday should trade at $5-15 a share? Of course, cobalt could go up or down $10 or so a lb. in the next year or two but the risk/reward seems pretty good....anybody do any financial forecast scenarios? Any differerent views?
The Cat Herder
P.S. the above is pretty simple-minded so if I missed something big feel free to correct me. I'm just reflecting on the fact that the mine is already sustantially built, the high grades are known, and the underground permits seem in place. I've only been buying since about $0.25 Canadian and added more in the $0.70's.