RE:So here's a simple back of the envelope:rainorshine59 wrote: So here's a simple back of the envelope:
65 verticals at a $10,000,000 licensing fee per vertical.
$650,000,000.
Plus 1% royalty, forever.
Each vertcal is worth a 1 Billion in sales/yr (mininum - some less..some way, waaay more)
Therefore: (1% of 65 Billion) = $650,000,000 annual cash flow in royalties.
Then:
80% payout to investors by way of Dividend
(plus the royalties/dividend will increase in line with world growth/sales...and not factoring in new uses we haven't even considered yet)
Year 1 - ($650,000,000 x .8) = $520,000,000 in dividends/yr.
At a 5% yield that would mean a market cap of (20 x $520,000,000) = $21 Billion.
Assuming 100 million shares fully diluted (including the Spectrum acquisition) then you could estimate a per share price of ~ $200.00
...with a war chest of $650,000,000 from the initial licensing deals, and $130,000,000/yr (the 20% retained and not paid out in dividends)
...here little kitty kitty basher/shorter... come to me come to me...
Those are some lofty numbers. I think you may have been oversold however. There is some great information regarding market size out there from non company sources. A good exercise would be to go through some of Meade Instrument filings. Meade is a behemoth in the sport optics field, which is apparently the first target of Nexoptic, yes? You could actually just go to Wikipedia and read through the section dedicated to their financial problems. Heres a little teaser from one of their last reported quarters when they were public. Not exactly a landscape for huge licensing revenue with 21 Manufacturers in a decining market.
MEADE INSTRUMENTS REPORTS Q1 RESULTS
IRVINE, Calif. – July 16, 2012 – Meade Instruments Corp. (Nasdaq CM: MEAD), a leading designer and manufacturer of consumer optical products, including telescopes, binoculars and microscopes, today reported net sales of $4.1 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 ended May 31, 2012, compared with $4.2 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2012 ended May 31, 2011. The Company reported a net loss of $0.8 million, or $0.65 per share, for the first quarter of fiscal 2013, compared with a net loss of $0.2 million, or $0.20 per share, in the same quarter of fiscal 2012.