RE:Deal DelayI think the deal will close. Goldgroup already spend $1M to buy the 5M Oroco shares and the only up-front financing they need is $4.5M in cash of which they had as of March 31st.
If you look at Goldgroup's Q1 BS they had $13M of net-working capital and $5.7M of cash - or, to put it another way, $13M of their net-working capital is cash, so after a $4.5M payment to Oroco they would have have $9.5M of net working capital with $0.8M in cash. This is not factoring in May & June increases to working capital.
Goldgroup's purchase of $1M in cash for 5M Oroco shares happened before the Q1 BS (Feb 5th) so those figures in previous paragraph are post-payment:
https://www.goldgroupmining.com/s/newsreleases.asp?ReportID=569531
Here are details of Goldgroup payments including $4.5M on closing. The rest of the costs can be financed by production, but Goldgroup would need to finance Cerro Prieto capex, which could be the delay issue. I understand from Oroco that Goldgroup thought they could bring the mine into production for $10M - about half the estimated $20M (memory) from the Oroco PEA, becuase their current Cerro Colorado mine in Sonora would be nearing end of life and they can use their existing heavy machinery for Cerro Prieto:
https://www.goldgroupmining.com/s/newsreleases.asp?ReportID=567810
This is another concerning point about the delay: "Oroco will pay Goldgroup a break fee of US$500,000 if the transaction in not completed by June 30, 2013"
From the langauge in the PR today "
Oroco and Goldgroup announce that they have agreed to extend, to July 15, 2013, the closing date for the acquisition of the Cerro Prieto Project by Goldgroup", I would speculate that the lawyers made a simple amendement to the current purchase and sale agreement to extend the deadline but that the $500,000 fee still applies.
If the deal closes by the 15th, then Oroco will use the $4.5M to repay their convtertible debentures and Oroco should trade at at least a $10M market cap which is a rough-and-dirty net present value for the $13.5M that Golgroup will pay Oroco out of the first 90,000 oz of production per the purchase agreement. $10M market cap with Oroco's ~73M shares post-Goldgroup's 5M share purchase equates to about $.14 and you get Xochipala for free - which is how market is going to value Xochipala until there is certainty regarding Oroco's legal title.