VALUATIONS - TOO LOW I am a little confused as to why the valuation of Jaguar is so low (i.e. $ 4 / boe) - where did this number come from? May be goo to revisit what kind of numbers the analysts (experts) have run in the past.
If I am not mistaken Tudor, Pickering, and Holt valued the Zaedyus discovery at $6.2 / boe. This $6.2 / boe evaluation factors in:
- deepwater development campaign;
- first oil production in 2017;
- and $105 brent.
Important note - Jaguar (if a discovery) will be developed in shallow water, not deepwater - which should drastically reduce development costs and timeline for first oil in comparison to Jubilee or Zaedyus. Surely this would have to put us north of $6.2 / boe.
GMP (another expert) place a $8.6 price target on Jaguar in the event of a 700mmboe discovery. Let's do the math here and put previous known variables (when this report was published by GMP) to see what type of valuation they put on Jagur on a $/boe basis - in the event Jagaur is a discovery. So,...
- $8.60 * 343 share out (as this was the un-risked target price GMP issued on December 2011) = $2.95B Market Cap for CGX;
- $2.95B Market Cap / 175mmboe (175mmboe = 700mmboe * .25) = $16.85/boe.
So, GMP has valued Jaguar (if a discovery) around $16.85/boe.
Food for thought....