DECISION MAKERS
Reading some very good posts - thought I would provide add my 2 cents...
I would have to believe Harbour Energy and Alfa would need to be consulted before any deal is made by PRE / CGX. Put yourselves in the shoes of Harbour Energy and Alfa - here you are in the midst of buying out Pacific Rubiales. The crown jewel of the assets PRE holds (in terms of exploration prospects / needle moving plays) reside with CGX - which has been clearly communicated by PRE in previous investor presentations.
Now, here you are trying to close the deal with PRE (remember you are in Harbour's shoes) and get word that CGX is considering giving the farm away (either by JV or equity raise)... If I were Harbour - I would not be very happy - as this may have been one of the core reasons for buying out PRE in the first place!! Hence, I would imagine the folks at Harbour / Alfa are in close communication with PRE and probably have made it very clear that before any decision is made - they would need final approval / sign off.
Take this with a grain of salt - but if I were Harbour / Alfa (as mentioned earlier) - I would probably want to safeguard the assets PRE holds in Guyana (CGX Energy). In fact, I most likely would want to further expand on PRE's exisitng position in Guyana...especially after the recent announcement by Exxon.
So, the question is - what is Alfa / Harbour going to do? Allow CGX Energy (with close consultation with PRE) to give away the farm to outside participants for pennies?
Also in the background is BGP (CNPC) - what are they going to do?
Let's not forget either - Harbour and Alfa have cash to spend! Recall, the WSJ reporting Harbour looking to make a ~ US $1B investment in oil & gas assets somewhere in Asia....
On a seperate note, there is alot of assumptions surrounding CGX being bought out - and if it is an option. I recall the prior Guyana administration advising PRE that they would prefer to see CGX as a stand alone company. My 2 cents here is that the adminstration in Guyana has changed - there is a new party and president. Hence, I have to question whether or not Guyana still would prefer CGX being a stand alone company. Perhaps this is something
In closing - what kind of arrangement exists where CNPC, PRE, Alfa, Habour, CGX Energy, and the Guyana government are all satisfied ?? In other words, everyone wins?
Hmmm....