RE:Cgx Let’s assume there is merit to Berenberg’s recent evaluation regarding the Orinduik block - link follows:
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/share-tips/stockbroker-tips/berenberg-ups-tullow-oil-to-buy-after-guyana-discovery In this report Berenberg “estimates that Tullow selling half of its stake [in the Orinduik license] could raise US $1Bn...” Tullow holds a 60% stake in the license - half is 30%.
In total, (using Berengerg estimates) that would calculate the Orinduik block to be valued at ~US $3.333Bn.
Let’s assume the Orinduik and Demerara licenses blocks are comparable assets - considering they are adjacent to one other - that would mean CGX’s 66.666% interest in Demerara would be worth ~US $2.2Bn.
Divide that by the total no of CGX shares outstanding: $2.222Bn / 287.3M shares = $7.73 USD; or, $10.28 CAD.
Note, Berenberg increased their valuation on Tullow as of Aug 21 by $340M USD (which is not accounted for in above calculation). Also not included is CGX’s 66.666% interest in the Corentyne license (which could warrant a similar valuation compared to Orinduik). In addition, the Port facility and CGX’s 62% interest in Berbice is also not accounted for in above valuation.
To answer directly - yes, it’s possible you could see CGX cross over the $5/share by end of year pending positive exploration results via Tullow, Staasolie, Repsol, Exxon and Apache. For this to happen - either exxon’s maku, Uaru or Apache’s Maka would need to have potential reservoirs crossing into CGX Corentyne license - along with a success case in Joe.
If CGX’s upcoming well campaigns are successful in both blocks - you could see this over $10/share.
It all depends on how CGX and Frontera manage the process from here on out. The more the basin becomes de-risked; the more play types are uncovered / repeatable across the basin (at different water depths) - the higher the value...